Shifting gears: for the military, a future of 'hybrid' wars.

• Author: Rusling, Matthew
• Position: Hybrid Wars - Cover story

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Pentagon planners often are criticized for being locked in perpetual preparation for the last war.

At the Defense Department, there is much pressure to figure out what's next after Iraq and Afghanistan. Will it be another counterinsurgency campaign? Or a conventional war against a modern industrialized nation?

The future, according to military strategists and scholars, is likely to be somewhere in between. Opponents may not fall into the predictable categories of low-tech "irregular" combatants or technologically advanced military powers. A consensus is emerging that U.S. forces should prepare for "hybrid" wars where they may face unconventional fighters or insurgents, who are likely to be equipped with modern weapons and information technology.

"Typically when you think of insurgents or non-regulated combatants, they will primarily be armed with small arms--explosives, rocket-propelled grenades, rifles, machine guns." said Army Maj. Gen. David A. Fastabend, director of strategy, plans and policy.

"In a hybrid threat, your adversaries might also be armed with some high end weapons systems," he said in an interview.

A militia such as Lebanon's Hezbollah is an oft-cited example of the type of enemy the United States will confront in the coming decades. Hezbollah is a paramilitary political organization but has access to the same advanced weapons that are typically acquired by conventional armies. This could include anti-armor missiles, sophisticated air defense capabilities, anti-ship missiles and short- and- medium range rocket systems, Fastabend said. They also could have rudimentary unmanned aerial vehicles rigged with weapons, he added.

"You've got folks who aren't organized in patterns you're familiar with yet they have some pretty potent weapons," Fastabend said. "That's already happening and can happen even more."

For U.S. forces, this means they may not have control of the skies. which would dramatically affect war planning, "I may be denied use of the air space," said Fastabend. "I may not have the autonomy against these guys that I would normally have because they've got a precision rocket system.

Indeed. with weapons systems becoming cheaper and more accessible, a non-state force needs only cash to morph into a de facto army. Advanced weapons can be produced anywhere in the world, experts said.

The Marine Corps has officially acknowledged hybrid war as a potential scenario and has weaved the concept into its...