Sequestration's silver lining: a more resilient U.S. Army.

• Author: Mancillas, James W.
• Position: VIEWPOINT

Sequestration has created considerable challenges for the Army. In addition to the short-term uncertainties surrounding budget cuts, the service also faces long-term difficulties adapting to a changing world.

Leaders are seeking answers to questions that will affect strategic, doctrinal and training decisions: What will future warfare look like? Where will it occur? How it will be fought? How should we prepare?

Although sequestration-related cuts will doubtlessly cause near-term pain, overall, it appears likely that they will accelerate a transformation process which would have otherwise proceeded, albeit at a much slower pace. Hence, it seems appropriate to consider how the abrupt disruption of sequestration may generate opportunities to rapidly transform, rather than slowly evolve, the Army into a force that is best positioned to support national defense objectives.

Resilience science might help provide some answers. Resilience is defined as the ability of an ecosystem to return to its original state after being disturbed. Although developed through the study of ecosystems, resilience principles and methodologies have allowed managers to study, model and manage a wide range of complex systems--from coral reefs and old growth forests to non-physical domains such as cybersecurity, economics, organizational decision processes and the human psyche.

By applying resilience science methodologies, actions that shape the Army--energy projects, for example--are evaluated with respect to how they affect, positively or negatively, the Army's ability to provide mission services under both normal and disrupted conditions.

A proposed project's value is linked to its ability to enhance desired outputs during times of disruption. Projects shown to reduce risks are given precedence over projects that provide fewer direct mission benefits. As a result, limited resources are directed toward projects that best help accomplish a goal.

As a science, resilience examines how entities absorb and adjust to unpredictable and unforeseeable disruptive events. Unlike traditional risk management tools that focus on quantifying and balancing known risks against available resources, resilience addresses a system's capacity to retain core functions in the face of both predictable, calculable threats and unpredictable disruptions.

Throughout the Army's long history, it has perpetually adapted to changing conditions, needs and resources. It will do so again. As the Army...