Senate quicksand.

• Author: Conniff, Ruth
• Position: The Word from Washington

The Democrats are scrambling to get it together for the Presidential election. But the Senate may be the place where they take the biggest hit.

"At this point it looks more likely that the Democrats will beat Bush in the Presidential election than that they will [stave off big losses] in the Senate," says Lou Jacobson, a veteran political reporter at the National Journal. The Senate is currently divided 51 to 48, with one independent. The Democrats are likely to lose at least four seats, Jacobson predicts.

That would mean an even easier ride for Republican legislation. The Republicans, with the help of only a handful of conservative Democrats, could get the sixty votes needed to end a filibuster, thereby crippling the minority party's ability to stall or amend sweeping laws.

The most vulnerable Senate seats are in the South, according to Jacobson: Zell Miller of Georgia is retiring, Ernest Hollings of South Carolina may step down or face a tough Republican challenge, and Presidential candidates John Edwards and Bob Graham are big targets for the Republicans, whether or not they decide to run for their old seats.

In addition, the Republicans would love to take down Russ Feingold in Wisconsin and Tom Daschle in South Dakota.

And the list goes on.

"They think they can get Blanche Lincoln in Arkansas (especially since she's holding a fundraiser with the Dixie Chicks)," says Democratic strategist Steve Cobble. "They're trying to talk a Latina into challenging Barbara Boxer. They're going to run Representative [George] Nethercutt against Patty Murray in Washington. And they will try to knock off Harry Reid in Nevada, a contested state which Bush narrowly won in 2000."

On the flip side, the Democrats don't have many good Republican targets. So far only Senator Peter Fitzgerald of Illinois and appointed Senator Lisa Murkowski of Alaska face strong Democratic opposition, according to Jacobson's analysis: "Otherwise, barring unforeseen events, the outlook for Democrats seems grim."

Candidates will make all the difference when it comes down to individual races. And many have not yet announced their intentions.

There has been a lot of talk about a run by Tommy Thompson, Wisconsin's former governor and current head of Health and Human Services, against Feingold. But so far Thompson has demurred.

Likewise, it's not clear whether former Republican Representative John Thune, who almost beat Democratic Senator Tim Johnson in 2002, will run against Daschle.

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