Seeing Is Believing: An Experiment on Absentee Ballots and Voter Confidence

• Author: Lisa A. Bryant
• Published date: 01 November 2020
• Date: 01 November 2020
• DOI: http://doi.org/10.1177/1532673X20922529
• Subject Matter: Articles

https://doi.org/10.1177/1532673X20922529

American Politics Research

2020, Vol. 48(6) 700 –704

© The Author(s) 2020

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DOI: 10.1177/1532673X20922529

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Article

Accurate counting of ballots is necessary to ensure voters

can hold politicians accountable, chosen representatives take

office, and that peoples’ interests and preferences are

reflected in new policies. As public confidence in outcomes

is important to the legitimacy and accountability of govern-

ment, understanding what affects voter confidence and why

some voters have lower confidence than others is also impor-

tant. Almost all of the previous research on voter confidence,

or a voter’s belief that ballots are counted correctly (Atkeson

et al., 2015), is based on postelection surveys. Overall, con-

fidence levels have been fairly high in the United States, but

some distinct patterns emerge. For example, voters are con-

sistently more confident that their own vote was counted cor-

rectly than all votes nationwide (Atkeson, 2014), and since

2008, Republicans have consistently had lower levels of con-

fidence than Democrats in the accuracy of both their own

vote and the national vote (Sances & Stewart, 2015).

Previous research finds that absentee voters consistently

have the lowest levels of confidence that their vote will be

counted accurately at both the individual and national level

(Atkeson et al., 2009; Stewart et al., 2010), but there is no

explanation for why absentee voting results in lower confi-

dence. One possible explanation has to do with differences in

the voting experience. Absentee voters do not have direct

interaction with the electoral process the way that Election

Day or early-in-person voters do. They do not interact with

poll workers, voting equipment, or other voters at the polls and

do not see their ballots opened or votes tabulated (see also

Burden and Gaines, 2015). Another possible explanation is

low confidence in the postal system, which the vast majority

of absentee or vote-by-mail (VBM) voters rely on to deliver

their completed ballot.1 While voters can now track their ballot

online and see that their ballot was received by the local elec-

tion official, they often have no way of knowing if their ballot

was accepted or rejected during the counting process. Seeing

the ballot physically accepted by the optical scanner or enter-

ing their vote directly into an electronic voting machine may

help increase voters’ confidence that their vote was tallied and

lessen concerns that their ballot may be rejected.

Experimental Design

Due to the increased popularity and growing use of absentee

or VBM ballots, it is important to gain a clearer understand-

ing of how absentee voting influences voter confidence. One

way is to use an experimental study, where participants vote

using an absentee ballot in a polling place or voting center

environment. This design provides certainty that the ballot is

received, but maintains uncertainty that the ballot will be

counted. Alternatively, if voting in isolation and not having

the ability to consult with poll workers leads to lower confi-

dence, the experimental setting should remedy this and there

should be no difference in levels of confidence. In this

922529APRXXX10.1177/1532673X20922529American Politics ResearchBryant

research-article2020

1California State University, Fresno, USA

Corresponding Author:

Lisa A. Bryant, California State University, Fresno, 2225 E. San Ramon,

Fresno, CA 93740, USA.

Email: lbryant@csufresno.edu

Seeing Is Believing: An Experiment on

Absentee Ballots and Voter Confidence

Part of Special Symposium on Election Sciences

Lisa A. Bryant1

Abstract

Since the 2000 election, researchers have taken an interest in the role of voter confidence and its importance as an assessment

of public trust in electoral outcomes. Many factors may influence voter confidence including the way in which a voter casts

their ballot. Previous research has found that absentee voters consistently report the lowest levels of confidence that their

votes were counted correctly. This study uses an experiment to examine how voting method impacts voter confidence.

Voters were randomly assigned to either an in-person or absentee voting condition. Participants assigned to the absentee

condition expressed lower levels of confidence that their votes would be counted correctly than those assigned to the in-

person voting condition. Voters who had to ask for assistance during the experiment also reported lower levels of confidence.

This could have implications for voter confidence levels nationally as vote-by-mail continues to grow in popularity.

Keywords

voter confidence, absentee, vote-by-mail, experiment, ballot