Hong and Yu develop and test a theory of seasonality in asset prices based on the idea that speculative trading generates a price premium.

• Position: Conferences - Brief Article

Hong and Yu develop and test a theory of seasonality in asset prices based on the idea that speculative trading generates a price premium. The authors hypothesize that trading of all types, including speculative trades, declines when investors are away on vacation but only the prices of speculative assets (those with abnormally high share turnover) will drop at the same time. They test their hypothesis using data from the U.S. and Chinese stock markets. As predicted, they find that turnover in the U.S. stock market drops significantly in the summer (when investors are gone...