Do Scandals Matter?

• Published date: 01 December 2023
• DOI: http://doi.org/10.1177/10659129231185532
• Author: Brandon Rottinghaus
• Date: 01 December 2023
• Subject Matter: Articles

Article

Political Research Quarterly

2023, Vol. 76(4) 1932–1943

© The Author(s) 2023

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DOI: 10.1177/10659129231185532

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Do Scandals Matter?

Brandon Rottinghaus

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Abstract

Political science research is conf‌licted about the impact of political scandals on survival in off‌ice. Scholars have found

strong negative impacts to some scandals but others have found minimal or no effects. The literature has explored several

consequences but no one work examines them collectively. This article examines presidential, gubernatorial, and

Congressional scandals from 1972 to 2021 to assess the impact of scandal in a polarizing America. We f‌ind the negative

consequences from scandals vary across time and institutions. Scandals in the Watergate era led to more resignations in

Congress but fewer resignations of White House off‌icials in the 1990s. During the Trump administration, White House

off‌icials did not survive in off‌ice at rates greater than past eras, demonstrating little support for the “Trump Effect.”

However, politicians generally survived scandal more in the polarized era, hinting at the changing role of political scandals.

Keywords

partisanship, scandal, president, governor

“I could stand in the middle of Fifth Avenue and shoot

somebody, and I wouldn’t lose any voters, OK? It’s, like,

incredible.”–Donald Trump.

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In a polarized world where affective polarization is

high, trust in media is low, and partisanship shapes news

attention, do scandals matter in politics anymore? One

body of work suggests scandals do have negative political

consequences. The type of scandal, the frame of the

scandal in the media (Shah et al. 2002;Darr et al. 2019;

Wolsky 2022), and even the attractiveness of the candi-

date (Stockemer and Praino 2019) all contribute to the

political impact of a scandal. Allegations of wrongdoing

leveled at elected off‌icials at several levels can hurt them

politically. Congressional investigations depress presi-

dential approval ratings (Kriner and Schickler 2014) and

investigations into Congressional members’campaign

f‌inance violations hurt them in subsequent elections

(Wood and Grose 2021). Fousek and Wasserman (2010)

cite “the rapid decline of public support for presidents

whose leadership appears ethically compromised.”A

scandal might diminish a president’s ability to enact

legislation (Andolina and Wilcox 2000;Newman and

Forchimes 2010). A poorly handled scandal may also

lead to policy paralysis (Meinke and Anderson 2001). In

the long term, political scandals undermine the public’s

trust in government, especially when a scandal involves

political accountability (Miller 1999;Chanley, Rudolph,

and Rahn 2000;Barnes, Beaulieu, and Saxton 2018).

Another body of scholarship, however, suggests that in

a polarized political world, scandals may not have a large

effect on incumbent political off‌icials. A polarized

America means scandals matter less to partisan voters.

Scandals aren’t necessarily “dealbreakers”for many

voters (Funck and McCabe 2021). Williams (1998) la-

ments that “there is no obvious correspondence between

the degree of controversy generated by scandals and the

gravity of the alleged misdeeds. Some of those involved in

scandals pay a heavy price: resignation, disgrace, and

even imprisonment. Others, who seem equally culpable,

escape conviction and retire with dignity”(2). Specif‌i-

cally, partisanship limits the negative impact of scandals

(Entman 2012;Dziuda and Howell 2020;Wolsky 2022;

Funck and McCabe 2021). Partisans stress different

messages about scandals based upon partisanship

(McKee, Evans, and Clark 2021) and may rake in ad-

ditional campaign contributions from party faithful

(Hamel and Miller 2018). More media coverage may also

simply generate “white noise”that the public ignores

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Department of Political Science, University of Houston, Houston, TX,

USA

Corresponding Author:

Brandon Rottinghaus, Department of Political Science, University of

Houston, 447 Philip Guthrie Hall, Houston, TX 77204, USA.

Email: bjrottinghaus@uh.edu