Russian roulette.

• Author: Simes, Dimitri K.
• Position: The Realist

American democracy is malfunctioning to the detriment of our foreign-policy decision making. The hysterical and one-sided U.S. media coverage of the August war between Russia and Georgia is just the most recent example. Watching the way the American political class sometimes discusses international affairs, it is hard not to wonder to what extent we are capable of responsible judgments, or for that matter, even rational dialogue. In this particular case it could lead to the further disintegration of U.S.-Russia ties; in the longer term, our foreign-policy malfunctions could have far more catastrophic consequences.

The suggestion that Russia started the war is simply a distortion of reality. As even ardent-Georgia-supporter Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said, "following repeated violations of the ceasefire in South Ossetia, including the shelling of Georgian villages, the Georgian government launched a major military operation into Tskhinvali and other areas of the separatist region." Tbilisi, which rejected several Russian proposals to sign a non-use-of-force pledge, may not have started the fighting, but did escalate it to an entirely new level.

None of this is to whitewash Russian conduct. Moscow was not an impartial mediator and clearly supported both separatist regions, Abkhazia and South Ossetia. And Russia took the war to Georgia proper. Also, controversial Russian conduct at home and abroad inevitably provided the prism through which many in the West looked at the war over South Ossetia.

Still, at the end of the day, this was a local conflict, with legitimate and illegitimate grievances on all sides--driven by leftover problems from the Soviet collapse. The war has not and will not affect fundamental American national interests so long as this incident does not become a model for future Russian behavior.

After all, if preventing Abkhazia's and South Ossetia's independence was truly important to the Bush administration, it should not have championed Kosovo's independence despite Serbia's objections and without a UN Security Council mandate. Moscow repeatedly warned that Kosovo's independence would establish a precedent for the Georgian enclaves.

Moreover, at this point, there are no grounds to believe that Russia will repeat what it did in Abkhazia and South Ossetia anywhere else on its periphery. Russian soldiers are not currently stationed in any other geographically contiguous regions. Nevertheless, it is necessary and appropriate for the United States to reassure Russia's neighbors that America and its allies will resist...