Russia: friend, enemy, or frenemy?

• Author: Wines, Michael
• Position: Cover story

With relations between the U.S. and Russia at their lowest point in decades, President Trump has called for improving ties. But can Russian President Vladimir Putin be trusted?

You couldn't dream up a more odd couple: On one side, the world's oldest democracy, leader of the West, and defender of liberty. On the other, an authoritarian giant that recently invaded one of its biggest neighbors, ruthlessly suppresses its critics, and stands accused of meddling in the 2016 American presidential election.

The United States and Russia hardly appear made for each other. In fact, for most of the past 100 years, the two nations have teetered between mutual mistrust and planet-threatening nuclear confrontation.

Yet President Trump seems set on forgetting the past and making friends with Russia and its autocratic leader, Vladimir Putin. Trump has openly praised Putin on Twitter, calling him "highly respected" and "very smart." And some of Trump's public statements have been music to Moscow's ears: that Washington should stop lecturing other nations about human rights, for instance, and that America's commitment to defending European allies may not be ironclad.

Putin has returned the favor, calling Trump "very talented" and orchestrating a frenzy of praise for him in Russia's state-controlled media. All this mutual admiration has prompted a flurry of jokes on late-night TV about a budding "bromance" between the two leaders. In telephone calls after November's election, the two leaders quickly set an ambitious agenda for cooperation: on terrorism, Syria's civil war, Ukraine, Iran's and North Korea's nuclear programs, and the Arab-Israeli peace process (see "The Six-Day War, Then & Now "p. 18).

This is an incredible turn of events. In recent years, ties between the two nations have sunk so low that experts have feared that any misunderstanding could trigger an international crisis--or worse. Trump's embrace of Putin could provide an opportunity to reset the U.S.-Russia relationship. But many analysts say the countries' fundamental interests are so at odds that it may be hard for the two strong-willed leaders to cooperate without butting heads (see "the U.S. & Russia").

"Were they to actually pull off a reconciliation, it would enable cooperation in some very important areas and, even more critically, reduce tension that runs the risk of spiraling into a very dangerous situation for the world as a whole," says Olga Oliker of the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, D.C. "However, I think the chances of a successful deal are low."

A History of Tensions

The U.S. and Russia have a long history of tensions (see key dates, p. 10). During the Cold War--a five-decades-long conflict between Soviet Communism and Western democracy--the two superpowers struggled for global supremacy and several times came close to outright war. In 1962, the Cuban missile crisis brought the world to the brink of nuclear war.

When the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991, a new democratic Russia was born--and it looked briefly like the U.S. and Russia might finally become allies. But Russia--which before the 1917 Communist revolution had been ruled by autocratic czars for more than 350 years--had no experience with democracy. The mayhem of the transition period in the 1990s, when prices soared and the economy crashed, left many Russians impoverished and disillusioned with the idea of democracy. So when Putin came to power in 1999 promising security and prosperity, many Russians welcomed the idea of putting a new strongman in charge.

Since then, Putin has consolidated power and eliminated his opposition. Life for many Russians has improved, mostly because of global demand for oil from Russia's vast reserves. In many cities, a new middle class can sip Starbucks lattes, buy Gap jeans, and often speak without fear of reprisal.

But more than a few of Putin's serious critics and political rivals have been imprisoned under sketchy circumstances or even killed. A few years ago, Putin's crackdown included jailing members of an all-female punk band for singing anti-Putin songs. All the while, he's increasingly portrayed the U.S. as an enemy of renewed Russian greatness.

It didn't help that Putin and President Barack Obama didn't get along. Obama once said Putin looked "like a bored kid in the...