Russia and Turkey - Dalliance or Alliance.

• Author: Pearson, W. Robert

Russia and Turkey are dancing a complicated pas de deux - for separate and common reasons. The happy couple has captivated global attention. There are reasons today to anticipate greater collaboration between Turkey and Russia in Syria and against Europe and the United States. However, there are also significant contradictions that could weaken the prospects of cooperation between the two countries. For gains against Syrian Kurds and to fan nationalist flames domestically, Turkey may be ignoring longer term needs. Russia is the major partner in the arrangement and sees little reason to sacrifice its interests to please Turkey. One day this unequal relationship may cause Turkey to question its value.

Turkey and Russia seemed destined for centuries to be on opposite sides of issues. Nearly 700 years passed from the 14th century entry of Turkey into the Balkans to the 20th century expulsion of the Turks from all but a sliver of Europe. First the Austrians and then conclusively the Russians after 1700 forced the Turks back to their Anatolian heartland, presaging the Ottomans' defeat in 1918. The Cold War followed 25 years later and lasted nearly a half-century. There were a few years of respite in this period, but none provided momentum for long term improvement of relations.

1991 and the Soviet Union's collapse changed all that, quietly at first and then with increasing momentum. Over the past quarter century, Turkish businessmen carrying suitcases of goods, Turkish construction firms expanding in Russia, Russian pipelines to Turkey, millions of Russian tourists to Turkish beaches, a massive $20 billion nuclear plant deal and the sale of Russia's advanced S400 air defense missile system have become visible milestones to closer ties. Turkey now relies on Russia for two-thirds of its energy needs but as a result has leverage on Russian options that help protect it. Today, Turkey treats Russia far better than it does its NATO allies in Europe and North America.

While Turkey and Russia gradually expanded their ties after 1990, the ties between the U.S. and Turkey began to weaken. The end of the Cold War gave Turkey the freedom to dream larger and to explore new opportunities. In the 1990's the U.S. continued to see Turkey in traditional terms and failed to perceive that Turks were shaping their own independent identity. The realization that Turkey would pick its own path came in 2003 when the Turkish parliament overrode its own government's...