Routine Activity Theory and the Likelihood of Arrest: A Replication and Extension With Conjunctive Methods

AuthorTimothy C. Hart,Shaun A. Thomas,Grant Drawve
Published date01 May 2017
Date01 May 2017
Subject MatterArticles
Journal of Contemporary Criminal Justice
2017, Vol. 33(2) 121 –132
© The Author(s) 2017
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DOI: 10.1177/1043986216689747
Routine Activity Theory and
the Likelihood of Arrest:
A Replication and Extension
With Conjunctive Methods
Grant Drawve1, Shaun A. Thomas1,
and Timothy C. Hart2
Drawve, Thomas, and Walker applied routine activity theory (RAT) to examine
whether measures of offender motivation, target suitability, and guardianship influence
the likelihood of an offender’s arrest in incidents of aggravated assault. The current
study uses the method of conjunctive analysis of case configurations (CACC) to
explore the robustness of their results across alternative analytic methods. We begin
with an estimation of the basic “main-effect” model used in the original article and
then perform a series of conjunctive analyses to evaluate the contextual variability
within each variable in this model. The observed pattern of substantial context-specific
effects in the conjunctive analysis illustrates the limitation of traditional quantitative
analysis and the utility of CACC for future exploratory and confirmatory studies in
evaluating RAT and other criminological research questions.
conjunctive analysis of case configurations, causation, main-effect models
The basic premise of routine activity theory (RAT; Cohen & Felson, 1979) is that
criminal opportunities are generated by the routine activities of everyday life. From
this perspective, particular routine activities are criminogenic because they affect the
1University of Arkansas, Fayetteville, USA
2Griffith University, Queensland, Australia
Corresponding Author:
Grant Drawve, Department of Sociology & Criminal Justice, University of Arkansas, 211 Old Main,
Fayetteville, AR 72704, USA.
689747CCJXXX10.1177/1043986216689747Journal of Contemporary Criminal JusticeDrawve et al.

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