Roads to Rule, Roads to Rebel: Relational State Capacity and Conflict in Africa

• Published date: 01 February 2021
• Date: 01 February 2021
• DOI: 10.1177/0022002720963674
• Subject Matter: Articles

Article

Roads to Rule, Roads to

Rebel: Relational State

Capacity and Conflict

in Africa

Carl Mu

¨ller-Crepon

1

, Philipp Hunziker

2

,

and Lars-Erik Cederman

3

Abstract

Weak state capacity is one of the most important explanations of civil conflict. Yet,

current conceptualizations of state capacity typically focus only on the state while

ignoring the relational nature of armed conflict. We argue that opportunities for

conflict arise where relational state capacity is low, that is, where the state has less

control over its subjects than its potential challengers. This occurs in ethnic groups

that are poorly accessible from the state capital, but are internally highly inter-

connected. To test this argument, we digitize detailed African road maps and con-

vert them into a road atlas akin to Google Maps. We measure the accessibility and

internal connectedness of groups via travel times obtained from this atlas and

simulate road networks for an instrumental variable design. Our findings suggest that

low relational state capacity increases the risk of armed conflict in Africa.

Keywords

civil wars, state capacity, Africa, ethnic groups

1

Department of Politics and International Relations, University of Oxford, United Kingdom

2

Independent researcher, Zu¨rich, Switzerland

3

International Conflict Research Group, ETH Zu¨rich, Switzerland

Corresponding Author:

Carl Mu¨ller-Crepon, Department of Politics and International Relations, University of Oxford, Manor Rd,

Oxford OX1 2JD, United Kingdom.

Email: carl.muller-crepon@politics.ox.ac.uk

Journal of Conflict Resolution

2021, Vol. 65(2-3) 563-590

ªThe Author(s) 2020

Article reuse guidelines:

sagepub.com/journals-permissions

DOI: 10.1177/0022002720963674

journals.sagepub.com/home/jcr

Introduction

Weak state capacity is a leading explanation of civil war. Scholars and

policy-makers frequently argue that rebels fight where governments are too poor,

incompetent, and distant to uphold their monopoly of violence (Fearon and Laitin

2003). Yet, despite its relevance in the literature, the empirical link between state

capacity and conflict remains elusive. For one, existing studies often argue that

conflict occurs in areas where states are weak. This perspective neglects that conflict

is inherently relational. Whether the state can uphold its monopoly of violence also

depends on whether local conditions facilitate non-state mobilization. Second, mea-

suring subnational state capacity consistently across countries remains challenging.

Third, state capacity may be endogenous to conflict, complicating statistical

inference.

This paper addresses these points. We introduce a relational concept of state

capacity and employ road network data to measure how well states can access their

subjects, and how well subjects are interconnected among themselves. Focusing on

opportunities for rebellion among ethnic groups in Africa, we show that state access

reduces the risk of conflict, while groups’ internal connectedness increases it. An

instrumental variable analysis based on simulated road networks supports this result.

Our theoretical argument focuses on violent competition between the state and

non-state actors over controlling local populations. We argue that opportunities for

conflict arise where states are weak compared to potential challengers. Because

physical access is a precondition for political control (e.g. Buhaug and Rød 2006;

Raleigh and Hegre 2009; Tollefsen and Buhaug 2015), we operationalize this con-

cept of “relational state capacity” with accessibility metrics computed from road

network data. Following Herbst (2000), we argue that states’ control is strongest in

areas accessible from their capitals. However, roads can also help armed groups to

mobilize and control local populations, increasing their ability to rebel. Combining

these two arguments, we approximate rel ational state capacity as the differen ce

between areas’ accessibility from the capital and their internal connectedness.

Because violent challengers of African states’ often mobilize along ethnic lines,

we assess the effect of relational state capacity on conflict within the settlement

areas of ethnic groups.

We compute our road-based proxy of relational state capacity using historical

road maps from Michelin, which we collect using an innovative and fully automatic

machine learning algorithm. In particular, we train a fully convolutional neural

network that classifies pixe ls of map scans and translate them into digital road

network data in a replicable and efficient manner. We use these data to create a

road atlas for Africa akin to Google Maps and measure ethnic groups’ accessibility

from the capital and their internal connectedness via traveling times. We then test the

effect of relational state capacity on the number of armed non-state actors,

and battles involving the state, rebel groups, and militias since 1997 (Raleigh

et al. 2010).

564 Journal of Conflict Resolution 65(2-3)