Sea-Level Rise and Its Impact on Vulnerable States: Four Examples

• Author: Ann Powers
• Position: Ann Powers is an Associate Professor of Law at Pace Law School's Center for Environmental Legal Studies. She thanks Nicholas Curtiss-Rowlands and Sarah Mielke for their research assistance
• Pages: 151-173

Sea-Level Rise and Its Impact on Vulnerable States:

Four Examples

Ann Powers∗

TABLE OF CONTENTS

I. Introduction ..........................................................................151

II. Four Vulnerable States .........................................................154

A. Tuvalu. ...........................................................................155

B. Seychelles ......................................................................156

C. Maldives .........................................................................158

D. Bangladesh .....................................................................160

III. Shifting Maritime Zones ......................................................162

A. The Effect of UNCLOS .................................................162

B. Judicial Decisions Regarding Boundaries......................163

C. The Impact of Shifting Boundaries on Fisheries ...........164

IV. Where is the Fairness? .........................................................166

V. Adaptation to Rising Seas ....................................................169

VI. Conclusion ...........................................................................173

I. INTRODUCTION

Of the myriad crises facing the world, none has more potential

for global damage and long-term impacts as climate change. From

coastal land loss in the Gulf of Mexico, to rising waters in the

Netherlands, to drowning Pacific Islands, the impacts of a warming

climate and rising seas are obvious. Although skeptics remain,

most nations recognize the problems posed by a warming world,

and many are actively working to address them. Mitigation

Copyright 2012, by ANN POWERS.

∗ Ann Powers is an Associate Professor of Law at Pace Law School’s

Center for Environmental Legal Studies. She thanks Nicholas Curtiss-Rowlands

and Sarah Mielke for their research assistance.

152 LOUISIANA LAW REVIEW [Vol. 73

measures aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions are being

pursued, and efforts to adapt to changing conditions are debated

and sometimes implemented. Few countries are more concerned

with making progress in this regard than countries with low-lying

coastal regions and island nations, which are directly threatened by

a warming climate and concomitant rise in sea levels. Many are

developing countries and small island developing states (SIDS)

where tourism and fishing are usually key industries; climate

change, and sea-level rise in particular, may gravely impact such

areas. Unfortunately, these states also often have the least capacity,

financing, or support for mitigation and adaptation initiatives.

Though the extent of sea-level rise and other consequences of

climate change are uncertain, global sea level rose 16 centimeters

(cm) in the twentieth century, and the rate of rise is rapidly

accelerating.1 In its 2007 report, the Intergovernmental Panel on

Climate Change (IPCC) predicted sea levels to rise between 18 cm

to 59 cm in the next century.2 For many states, infrastructure and

settlements built along coasts will become uninhabitable or even

vanish, and a few nations face the real possibility of disappearance

beyond the next century mark.3 Developing countries are expected

to suffer the earliest and to the greatest degree because of their

geographical location, low incomes, weak institutional capacities,

and greater reliance on climate-sensitive sectors like agriculture.4

1. John A. Church & Neil J. White, A 20th Century Acceleration in Global

Sea-Level Rise, 33 GEOPHYSICAL RES. LETTERS 1, 2 (2006), available at http://

naturescapebroward.com/NaturalResources/ClimateChange/Documents/GRL_Ch

urch_White_2006_024826.pdf.

2. INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE, CLIMATE CHANGE

2007: SYNTHESIS REPORT 45 (2007), available at http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/

assessment-report/ar4/syr/ar4_syr.pdf.

3. Susmita Dasgupta, Benoit Laplante, Craig Meisner, David Wheeler &

Jianping Yan, The Impact of Sea Level Rise on Developing Countries: A

Comparative Analysis, WORLD BANK, 1, 9–10 (Feb. 2007), http://www-wds.

worldbank.org/external/default/WDSContentServer/IW3P/IB/2007/02/09/00001

6406_20070209161430/Rendered/PDF/wps4136.pdf. A one-meter sea-level rise

would affect approximately 0.3% of the territory of developing countries and

approximately 56 million people, or 1.28% of the world population. Eighty-nine

million people, or 2.03% of the population, would be impacted by a two-meter

sea-level rise. Thus, these small increases in sea-level rise affect a significant

population. Such changes not only have social and economic impacts, but also

possibly security implications. See G.A. Res. 63/281, U.N. Doc. A/RES/63/281

(2009); U.N. GAOR, 63rd Sess., 85th plen. mtg., U.N. Doc. A/63/PV.85 (June

3, 2009); Press Release, General Assembly, Expressing Deep Concern, Invites

Major United Nations Organs to Intensify Efforts in Addressing Security

Implications of Climate Change, U.N. Press Release GA/10830 (June 3, 2009).

4. William Burns, Potential Implications of Climate Change for the

Coastal Resources of Pacific Island Developing Countries and Potential Legal