Richmond forecast 2014.

• Author: Zhong, Litao

The East Central Indiana regional economy did achieve moderate progress in 2013, as we predicted in 2012. The recovery is expected to continue in 2014 amid many external uncertainties. Before we make the 2014 forecast, let's take a look at the region's economic performance in 2013. The geographic territory in this article contains the following six Indiana counties: Fayette, Henry, Randolph, Rush, Union and Wayne, with Wayne County the central focus of this article. Summaries of the labor market and housing sector follow, concluding with our 2014 regional outlook.

Labor Market

In Wayne County, recent job data are encouraging. Compared to 2012, the labor force declined during February through May but there was a robust rebound during June through August, resulting in a net gain of 113 people in 2013 (see Table 1). Meanwhile, the number of people =employed, on a year-to-year basis, fell by 146 workers. The regional data follows the same trend as Wayne County's (see Table 2). Looking at the big picture, the regional job market is gaining a solid footing as the national recovery continues. On one side, people are feeling more optimistic about the job market as they are seeking employment, and on the other side, employers are more willing to hire people with the improving economic conditions.

* TABLE 1: Labor Force and Unemployment for Wayne County, January through August, 2012 to 2013 Labor Force Unemployment 2012 2013 1-Year 2012 2013 1-Year Change Change January 30,078 30,106 28 3,295 3,372 77 February 30,294 30,263 -31 3,254 3,235 -19 March 30,106 29,764 -342 3,199 3,115 -84 April 30,196 30,148 -48 2,939 2,825 -114 May 30,445 30,172 -273 3,049 2,882 -167 June 30,233 30,404 171 3,196 3,047 -149 July 29,685 30,061 376 3,201 2,932 -269 August 29,080 30,106 1,026 3,117 2,676 -441 January through 30,015 30,128 113 3,156 3,011 -146 August Average Note: Data are not seasonally ad'usted. Source: Indiana department of Workforce Development * TABLE 2: Labor Force and Unemployment for the Richmond Region, January through August, 2012 to 2013 Labor Force Unemployment 2012 2013 1-Year 2012 2013 1-Year Change Change January 85,789 85,829 40 9,335 9,573 238 February 85,660 85,566 -94 9,154 9,142 -12 March 85,844 84,707 -1,137 8,905 8,880 -25 April 85,977 85,466 -511 8,121 7,920 -201 May 87,036 86,142 -894 8,282 8,017 -265 June 86,199 86,609 410 8,597 8,442 -155 July 85,660 85,828 168 8,620 8,088 -532 August 84,469 86,220 1,751 8,453 7,266 -1,187 January...