Richmond forecast 2013.

• Author: Zhong, Litao

Richmond (Wayne County) is at an intersection to redefine itself after a large-scale loss of its historically dominant manufacturing jobs in recent years. The overall economy in Wayne County continues to recover after the Great Recession, but at a much slower pace than the state and other counties. There are several big problems hanging over our region: high unemployment, a declining and aging population, a tepid housing market, and the shortage of skilled workers. The main question Wayne County faces today is not just how to recover from the recession, but how to reshape its economic structure and revitalize its economy and community.

This article provides an overview of Wayne County and surrounding counties in regard to recent economic performance and an outlook for 2013. The surrounding counties are Fayette, Franklin, Henry, Randolph, Rush and Union. This article mainly focuses on Wayne County, but also analyzes some key economic indicators for these surrounding counties.

Total Personal Income

Since the public regional gross domestic product (GDP) data are unavailable for Wayne County and surrounding counties, we used total personal income (TPI), (1) as an approximation for GDP to measure the overall economic activity in our region. The regional total TPI bounced back in 2010 after the 2009 slump (see Figure 1). Our region had a TPI of $6.5 billion in 2010 and accounted for 2.9 percent of the state total. Comparatively, the TPI of our region was $5.4 billion in 2000 and accounted for 3.3 percent of the state total. At the county level, Wayne still has the largest share of TPI in our regional economy, but its share fell from 32 percent in 2000 to 31 percent in 2010 (see Figure 2). Fayette and Henry counties also declined in their economic weights, while Franklin, Randolph and Union counties gained more shares in the regional economy. Rush County remained the same.

[FIGURE 1 OMITTED]

FIGURE 2: The Breakdown of Regional Total Personal Income, 2000 and 2010 2000 2010 Union 3% 4% Wayne 32% 31% Fayette 12% 12% Franklin 10% 12% Henry 22% 21% Randolph 12% 13% Rush 9% 9% Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis Regional Fact Sheets Note: Table made from pie chart. Per capita personal income (PCPI) has gradually improved in the past decade (see Figure 3). In 2010, the regional PCPI was $29,928, about 88 percent of the state average ($34,028) and 75 percent of the national average ($39,791). Wayne County had a PCPI of $28,916 in 2010, ranking 74th in the state and reflecting an increase of 0.1 percent from 2009. The 2009-2010 state change was 2.0 percent and the national change was 2.8 percent. In 2000, the PCPI of Wayne County was $24,442 and ranked 46th in the state. Wayne County's 2000-2010 annual growth rate for PCPI was 1.7 percent, compared to 22 percent for the state and 2.8 percent for the...