Rhetoric vs. reality.

• Author: Bresler, Robert J.
• Position: STATE OF THE NATION - Essay

FEW PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS seem to alter the direction of American politics in important ways. One could cite the election of Franklin D. Roosevelt in 1932 and Ronald Reagan in 1980. The others only have brought changes on the margins of history. Far more often it is events, not elections, that shake the ground beneath us--such as the stock market crash of 1929, Pearl Harbor in 1941, and the Twin Towers terrorist attack of Sept. 11, 2001. Presidential candidates, puffed up by their ego and self-importance, often talk as if their election will usher in a new era. What it really brings is a mere change of faces and some modest policy alterations. When a new era does begin, it is events that will have brought it about, and presidents have to alter their course accordingly.

Presidents quickly learn they can change their advisors, strategy, and rhetoric, but important facts cannot be ordered away. Wars are not ended quickly; Richard Nixon learned that about Vietnam. A weak economy cannot be healed easily; Franklin Roosevelt learned that about the Great Depression. Budgets rarely are balanced and outdated government programs seldom eliminated; all presidents learn that.

This is the inevitable reality, and so it will be on Jan. 20, 2009, for our next chief executive. What choices he makes will be forced by that reality. The Iraqi war will not present a clear way to the exit door, more troops in Afghanistan will not control the vast border regions of that country; the price of gasoline will not plummet dramatically; Islamic extremism will not be contained or pacified easily; no magical new source of energy will appear no matter how deep we drill or how much we conserve; Social Security and Medicare costs will not lend themselves to an easy fix; and the danger to our homeland will not disappear. There will be no going back to the 1990s, when presidential scandals and celebrity crimes were the important news of the day. That era is behind us. The next president can put aside glowing speeches about how some new day will dawn with his arrival.

Even if the Barack Obama captures the White House and the Democrats increase their margins in the Congress, no quick legislative fix will change these stem facts. If Obama sticks to his promise to increase American involvement in Afghanistan, that war could become as costly and lengthy as Iraq. Raising taxes on those making more than $250,000 will, if history is a guide, gain far less revenue than the optimistic...