Revisiting US–China strategic competition in Central Asia and its impact on Pakistan

• Published date: 01 December 2022
• Author: Azeem Gul,Muhammad Munir,Munawar Hussain,Mujahid Hussain
• Date: 01 December 2022
• DOI: http://doi.org/10.1002/pa.2764

RESEARCH ARTICLE

Revisiting US–China strategic competition in Central Asia and

its impact on Pakistan

Azeem Gul

1,2

| Muhammad Munir

3

| Munawar Hussain

4

| Mujahid Hussain

5

1

Department of International Relations,

National University of Modern Languages

(NUML), Islamabad, Pakistan

2

Area Study Centre for American and African

Studies, Quaid-i-Azam University, Islamabad,

Pakistan

3

Head of Department of International

Relations, Muslim Youth University, Islamabad,

Pakistan

4

Area Study Center for Africa and American

Studies, Quaid-i-Azam University, Islamabad,

Pakistan

5

Humanities and Social Department, Bahria

University, Islamabad, Pakistan

Correspondence

Azeem Gul, Department of International

Relations, National University of Modern

Languages (NUML), Islamabad, Pakistan.

Email: azeemgul@asc.qau.edu.pk

Since the dissolution of the former Soviet Union, the US, and China are aspiring to

enhance their strategic influence in Central Asia which has recently been intensified

due to China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Further, China has also increased its

influence in Central Asia through regional organizations such as Shanghai Coopera-

tion Organization (SCO). Against this backdrop, Pakistan emerged as an important

pivot of China's BRI where the China–Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) is the flag-

ship project. This study begins with a theoretical debate of Heartland theory of Hal-

ford John Mackinder and the later version of Heartland theory into Rimland theory

by Nicolas Spykman, which explains the geopolitical significance of Central Asia for

Major Powers. Within this theoretical context, the study discusses China and the US

grand strategies in Central Asia in the form of China's BRI, SCO and the US counter-

strategies such as from phase 1.0, policy to 2.0, policy, and the recent initiative of

C5 +1. The study finds out that US–China strategic competition will have implica-

tions for various states having relations with both of these two major powers. In case

of Pakistan, the strategic competition between China and the US will affect vari-

ous dimensions of Pakistan's security at the broader level such as political,

military, and economic security. First, at the political level, it is affecting

Pakistan's relations with Russia, China, Iran, and Gulf States. Second, at military

level, Pakistan's strategic value has been enhanced as a frontline state against ter-

rorism. Finally, at the economic level, CPEC provides opportunities for Pakistan's

economy and regional connectivity.

KEYWORDS

BRI, CPEC, SCO, strategic competition, US–China

1|INTRODUCTION

Central Asia is described as the centre of the world and a place of leg-

ends from Alexander the Great to Genghis Kahn and Timurlane. For

many decades, the region has seen the rise and fall of great powers

due to its strategic location at the crossroad to Europe, Asia, and

Middle East. Khanates and Empires gave way to empires and the for-

mer Soviet Union made it its satellite republics in the pre and during

the Cold War era (Ozment, 2019). Geographers have featured Central

Asia as a Heartland, for example, Uzbekistan as the locus of Heartland

theory through which the current American policy makers use the

theory to understand the geopolitical importance of Uzbekistan and

experts have believed that any power that controls Central Asia will

have its control on matters of Europe, Middle East, and rest of Asia

(Megoran, 2004). Central Asia has bordered China which has led to

direct impacts on its comprehensive national strength before, during

and the post-Cold War era. Russia before the emergence of Soviet

Union had a direct security threat to its mainland where these threats

persisted during the former Soviet Union and after its dissolution

in 1991.

Received: 10 January 2021 Revised: 2 August 2021 Accepted: 18 September 2021

DOI: 10.1002/pa.2764

J Public Affairs. 2022;22(Suppl. 1):e2764. wileyonlinelibrary.com/journal/pa © 2021 John Wiley & Sons Ltd. 1of12

https://doi.org/10.1002/pa.2764