REVIEW OF OIL PRICES 2015

• Date: 01 July 2016
• Published date: 01 July 2016
• DOI: http://doi.org/10.1111/oets.66

First quarter 2015

27 December-2 January

Friday close: $55.38

Oil traders returned in bearish mood

following the holidays and marked

down crude and product prices in

thin trading. Sour crudes were seen

as oversupplied following a sharp

rise in exports from the Persian Gulf

and Russia at the end of the year.

There were also plenty of sweet

crudes available from West Africa.

By the end of the week many crudes

had fallen by more than $3/bbl.

Trade was too thin to allow a proper

assessment of price levels and most

market participants remained on the

sidelines until the first normal trad-

ing week of the year.

3-9January

Friday close: $47.64

Traders tried to assess the implica-

tions of Saudi Arabia’s move to set

higher than expected prices for Feb-

ruary term sales to Asia, before con-

cluding that markets were not robust

enough to cope with them, marking

down crude prices generally. There

were signs of demand for sour

crudes east of Suez, but global mar-

kets remained oversupplied as low

crude prices did little to slow the

rate of increase in production. North

Sea Dated and WTI fell below $50/

bbl for the first time in over five

years. In Asia, unsold cargoes of

light, sweet crudes and condensate

helped to keep prices under down-

ward pressure. Low prices encour-

aged several refiners to buy crude

oil to put into stocks. Product prices

fell due to high refining runs, en-

couraged by the falling price of

crude, although there were signs of

relative strength for heavy fuel oil in

Europe and Asia.

10-16 January

Thursday close: $47.38

Crude oil prices ended the week

little changed, but markets remained

awash with oil, especially sour

crude, thanks to rising exports from

Russia and Iraq. Iraqi barrels includ-

ed nearly 200,000 bpd of crude from

Kurdistan. Russia’s Urals exports

were boosted by cuts in export taxes

of nearly $8/bbl. Outbreaks of vio-

lence in Libya cut exports to

150,000 bpd, less than a tenth of

their pre-civil war level, but there

was no general shortage of light,

sweet crudes thanks to the presence

of a number of unsold cargoes of

Nigerian crude. Rising volumes of

US crude found their way into stor-

age, prompted by the low price of

prompt US crudes compared with

prices for some of the outer months,

and pushed the price of WTI above

that of North Sea Dated for the first

time in four years.

17-23 January

Friday close: $46.69

Crude oil prices eased slightly as

stock levels continued to rise. Many

light, sweet crudes dropped by $1/

bbl or less amid signs that improv-

ing refinery margins were boosting

demand. A fall in Libyan exports

prompted European refiners to take

in more Saharan Blend from Alge-

ria, increasing its price in relation to

Brent. East of Suez, the main de-

mand was for sour Middle Eastern

grades, but there was additional

demand for light crudes and conden-

sates from Australia and elsewhere

as a result of high naphtha prices

and a cut in supplies from India and

Europe. Strong demand in Europe

for naphtha supported Caspian light

crude prices. Heavy fuel oil benefit-

ed from shortages in Asia.

24-30 January

Friday close: $47.52

The long slide in crude oil prices

came to a halt as buying activity

among refiners increased, although

primarily buying for inventory. Low

prompt prices and higher prices for

forward delivery encouraged refin-

ers and traders to put oil into stor-

age, either on land or at sea. Most

crudes rose by about $1/bbl, alt-

hough some sour crudes went high-

er. Product prices also rose, with

particular strength seen for naphtha

and fuel oil in Asia. US middle dis-

tillate prices received a fillip from a

combination of cold weather in the

north-east and lower refinery runs

on the Gulf Coast.

31 January-6 February

Friday close: $55.88

Crude oil prices rose strongly on

reports that drilling activity in US

oilfields had fallen sharply, which

led many market participants to the

conclusion that US oil production

was about to fall. There was no evi-

dence that such a development was

imminent, and US and other markets

remained awash with oil. Traders

reported that most of Nigeria’s

scheduled crude exports for March

were still not sold, while in the US

crude oil stocks rose to a new record

high. Brent prices benefited from

high demand for most North Sea

grades. Sour crudes generally were

strong, boosted by a shortfall in ex-

ports from Iraq. Buying by US West

Coast refiners helped to lend a firm

tone to Latin American sour blends.

Product prices went up along with

crude, with gasoil in the lead in At-

lantic markets and gasoline strongest

in Asia.

7-13 February

Friday close: $60.33

Crude oil went up again, although

there was still little sign of any

strong underlying demand. Some of

the demand there consisted of buy-

ing for storage rather than constitut-

ing a large increase in actual con-

sumption. Brent prices fell by nearly

$2/bbl mid-week but recovered by

the end of the week on economic

optimism on both sides of the Atlan-

tic and short-covering on futures

markets ahead of a US holiday.

14-20 February

Friday close: $60.99

Crude oil prices hung on to gains of

the previous week thanks to strong

buying by refiners across the Atlan-

tic and in Asia. Light, sweet crudes

were supported by low Libyan ex-

ports and cuts to loadings of crudes

from the Caspian. Supplies of sour

blends, Urals and Basrah Light were

also reduced. Asian and Australian

REVIEW OF OIL PRICES 2015

Oil and Energy Trends: Annual Statistical Review

© John Wiley & Sons Ltd 2016

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