Reversing the slide.

• Author: Conniff, Ruth
• Position: The Word from Washington

Things are looking up for the Democrats. Sure, John Kerry is no rock star--as Iraq burns and America faces its worst moral crisis since Vietnam the Democrats' shy fiance is touring the country to promote his moderate views on health care. But as the Bush Administration sinks further in the polls, and the hearings and investigations and more bad news pile up, formerly gloomy predictions of a Republican sweep in Congress are giving way to Democratic optimism.

"Whereas before I would have said that the Dems would be lucky to lose a couple seats, rather than crash to, say forty-two seats [in the Senate], now they could well stay even," says Lou Jacobson, deputy editor of Roll Call, the newspaper of Capitol Hill.

The Senate is closely divided, with the Republicans in control by two seats. In the House, the Republicans have a majority of twenty-two seats. With a rash of retirements in the Senate this year, and redistricting all over the country favoring the incumbent majority in the House, things had been looking bleak for the D's. But what a difference Iraq makes.

"Generic ballot" polls that gauge whether voters want an unnamed Republican or an unnamed Democrat for Congress show the Democrats doing better than they have since 1998. A Time/CNN poll taken on May 12 and 13 asked likely voters, "If the election for Congress were being held today, do you think you would vote for the Democratic candidate for Congress in your district, or the Republican candidate?" Fifty-three percent of respondents said "Democrat,s' and 40 percent said "Republican." A slew of other polls show similar results--a big shift in the Democrats' favor over the last few months.

Meanwhile, in a few key races around the country, Democrats are making unexpected gains:

* In North Carolina, many pundits saw a sure win for the Republicans when Democratic Senator John Edwards abandoned his run for reelection to focus on his unsuccessful Presidential bid. But now Erskine Bowles, President Clinton's former White House chief of staff, is neck-and-neck with Republican Representative Richard Burr in what will probably be a tight race to the finish.

* Likewise, in South Carolina, where Democratic Senator Fritz Hollings is retiring this year, initial predictions that the Republicans had a certain pick-up have given way to polls showing a close contest between State Superintendent of Education Inez Tenenbaum and an undetermined Republican rival, yet to emerge from a contentious primary.

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