Military security, energy resources, and the emergence of the Northwest Passage: Canada's Arctic dilemma.

• Author: Dobransky, Steve
• Position: Report

The Arctic region is becoming an increasingly significant factor in international relations. In recent decades, global warming and the melting of the polar ice caps have been major issues. Now, economic and security issues in the Arctic are coming to the forefront. Trillions of dollars of oil, natural gas, and other mineral resources are becoming accessible. It is estimated that the Arctic holds approximately 20-25% of the world's oil and natural gas reserves and this figure will increase to 50% in the next several decades as the rest of the world's resource reserves are depleted. Moreover, billions of dollars worth of gold, silver, platinum, and other metals are located in the Arctic, as well as an estimated one-third or more of the world's diamonds. Thus, the Arctic is a treasure trove that is only now becoming accessible for any willing "adventurers." This massive amount of resources combined with the world's rapidly depleting natural resources and economic troubles will make the Arctic an increasingly important issue in the coming years. It has the potential to lead to serious conflict. There, currently, is no international regime for the Arctic region. (1)

This paper analyzes the Arctic issue and the key actors involved. It presents briefly a history of the Arctic region and its geographical significance. It stresses the basic economic potential of the region, both in terms of natural resources and shipping lanes. It examines the policy positions of the major regional players. It emphasizes the economic and security issues that are emerging as the ice melts and there is now year-round sea traffic. The paper highlights the present period and current trends. It stresses the need for an Arctic Regime and it lays down in some detail the basic structure of what this proposed Arctic Regime could entail. Furthermore, the primary international theories of Realism and Liberalism underlie this case study. International regimes are critical to Liberalism, yet power politics could abound in the Arctic in the coming decades. This raises the question as to whether countries can utilize regimes to not only promote Liberalism (international cooperation) but also to possibly preempt Realism (power politics). The Arctic case may suggest theoretically that the timeframe of an issue determines whether Realism or Liberalism is the dominant paradigm. Countries may choose to institute an international regime before an issue's key variable(s) increase significantly in value in the overall national/international equation. In other words, the further out an issue takes precedence and value, the more likely for Liberalism and international regimes to occur. Hence, a window of opportunity can come years/decades before an issue reaches critical mass or after a major war. The higher in value an issue becomes over time, the more likely for Realism. Thus, the Arctic could be a very good policy to analyze, evaluate, and test multiple theories on from here on out. Scholars can observe closely how and why the key actors behave and, then, what the results are, in order to find conclusive evidence to support their theory or model. The Arctic is not a vital issue at this time, which suggests that Liberalism and international regimes may be possible. But, Realism may still be a prism for some at the present and an opportunity for an international regime may be lost. In time, as the Arctic issue grows in value and, possibly, becomes a vital national interest for one or more countries, then Realism may become the dominant force and the Arctic region could become much more tense and conflict could occur.

Overall, this paper encourages a new and more open debate on the Arctic, and it attempts to move away from the past nationalistic claims of some actors to a more internationalist and cooperative approach to preserving the Arctic as an area of peace and harmony. An Arctic Regime, this paper argues, is the best means of promoting long-term security, stability, and prosperity in the region and it holds the best chance of establishing a mutually beneficial system for all the key actors involved. The paper contends that it is best to pursue an Arctic Regime now rather than wait for an energy crisis to emerge and a potential major power onslaught in the region to occur. Sooner or later, the Arctic will become an area of vital national security. Hence, an Arctic Regime is highly recommended. This paper provides details of a potential Arctic Regime and it makes suggestions on how best to establish it. It concludes with a number of recommendations for future policy analysis and implementation of this international regime.

The Historical and Geo-Economic Context

For centuries the Northwest Passage was believed to have been a myth. Some scholars and scientists have acknowledged that the myth was actually a reality approximately 5,000 to 7,000 years ago. The great quest to use the North American hemisphere as a quick trading route to Asia has been pursued since Columbus' voyage in 1492. The earliest explorers may have had information passed down to them by generations of seafarers. The ancient Sumerians were believed to be the first people who may have traversed the globe and the Northwest Passage, along with reaching the southern parts of the Western Hemisphere. Ancient native histories speak of such people. When the Europeans tried to find this passage way, they seemed to have expected it to exist without question. They, of course, found it blocked by ice. This led eventually to shipping lanes thousands of miles out of the way down to the tip of South America and then later in the early 1900s through the Panama Canal. Only recently with global warming and the melting of the Arctic ice, ships are now making the Northwest Passage a viable sea lane since possibly the ancients. (2)

2007 became the first time in thousands of years that there was a completely ice- free shipping lane through the Northwest Passage. Each year since then there have been at least two months of ice- free shipping. And, for the first time ever, there is year-round passage through the Arctic, since the new ice that comes back is thin ice and much easier to break. Up until 2007, substantial ice held back shipping and only the most modern and heavy-duty icebreakers could go through. With all the ice layers now having melted in many areas, it means that from here on out there will be nothing more than a thin layer of ice in 10 months of the year or less. Experts, moreover, believe that at the current rate of global warming in the Arctic, it may be as early as 2013 or as late as 2020 that there will eventually become an ice- free shipping lane throughout the year. (3)

Many of the ships that are currently traveling the Arctic are built with strengthened hulls. Many of them have been led by icebreakers but the most recent innovation in ship building has the very ships themselves having icebreakers. More specifically, these ships, often called dual-direction ships, traverse normal waters and, then, coming upon any ice they turn around and use their back-end propellers to mull through the ice. Finland and South Korea have taken the lead in building these types of ships. More Arctic-conditioned ships will be built in the future by many other countries as well. In the next decade and beyond, there may not even be a need to have these icebreakers. (4)

It will only be a short while longer that shipping through the Arctic will become a normal and major operation. The Northwest Passage will be as much a northwest as a northeast passage. From Asia to the United States and vice versa there will be a major new shipping lane in the Arctic. Europe also will be on the new shipping lane. The Arctic lanes will cut shipping miles by more than 3,000 miles from Asia to the U.S.'s East Coast. To Europe it will save up to 6,000 miles from the original routes. This will be a tremendous savings in standard costs, fuel, and time. It is estimated that each standard shipping carrier will save approximately $2-3 million per trip. (5) This will be a great incentive for the ships and international businesses. It also may lead to major changes in the international economy, as durable goods that are too heavy and costly to ship now become less expensive and more competitive to ship via the Arctic route. Specialized containers may be necessary for certain temperature-sensitive products. But, the overall impact on the international economy and existing trade relations could be tremendous in the coming decades.

And, once the shipping becomes normal practice with minimal risks and problems, the insurance costs should become normal if not lower. Arctic waters are calm and there is no risk of a major hurricane and other storms, let alone other possible dangers. If the ships are properly fitted, then any errant iceberg in the near future can be dealt with. If and when the entire shipping lanes become ice- free, then it probably will not take longer than 5-10 years of shipping to establish a normal benchmark for shipping companies and insurers to determine that this new shipping lane is relatively safe and, thus, should have normal insurance pricing. As a result, when combined with the thousands of miles and one or more weeks of time saved, the overall insurance costs should go down significantly for companies. This will make it even more attractive financially to traverse the Arctic route.

The Security and Energy Dimension

The United States has yet to fully assess the great opportunities that are quickly arising in the Arctic area. The U.S. policy has for long been to claim the Northwest Passage area as international waters and thus apply the freedom of the seas principle. This became a dominant theme during the Cold War as the U.S. maneuvered its submarines under the Arctic Circle. Canada, on the other hand, continues to claim this entire area as internal waters, since the land archipelago exists beyond its...