Resisting temptation.

• Author: Bresler, Robert J.
• Position: STATE OF THE NATION

THE FORTUNES OF PRES. George W. Bush and the Republican Party have continued to dim since the 2004 election. The ongoing struggles in Iraq, Hurricane Katrina disaster, Abramhoff scandals, and Dubai Port controversy have piled on top of one another to give the Democrats their best chance in over 10 years to take back Congress. It may happen, yet the Dems will need a bit more than Republican misfortune to win a majority and then keep it in subsequent elections.

During the years of Democratic dominance, the Republicans were able to win an election or two when the majority party stumbled. In 1946, the Republicans gained Congress when Pres. Harry Truman seemed uncertain as how to handle the Soviets. In 1948, when the President regained his footing with the Truman Doctrine, Marshall Plan, and Berlin Airlift, he was reelected and the Democrats recaptured the House and Senate. In 1952, with the war in Korea apparently stalemated, the Republicans, led by Gen. Dwight Eisenhower, took the presidency and the Congress. Within two years, the Democrats had Congress back and, in 1960, captured the presidency. In 1968, with the Democrats again presiding over another unresolved war--this time in Vietnam--Richard Nixon won the presidency for the Republicans, but not the Congress. In 1976, the Democratic Party was back in control of these branches of government.

During this era, the Democratic Party set the agenda and, thus, maintained its majority. The Eisenhower and Nixon interludes brought little departure from that agenda. In fact. under Nixon, environmental and consumer regulations grew faster than they did under the Democrats. It was not until Ronald Reagan's Administration that the Republicans developed their own distinct agenda. They then proceeded to win five out of seven presidential elections and gained a congressional majority in 1994.

Will a potential Democratic victory in 2006 simply be an interlude in a Republican era? Or will such a victory herald a new Democratic era? Much will depend on what the Democrats have to offer. If a new Democratic Congress simply supplies more Bush bashing, a series of flamboyant investigations, and calls for impeachment, their time in power will be short-lived.

What Democratic agenda would help to reestablish its lost majority? Another round of the New Deal/Great Society reforms (single-payer health insurance, massive public works, or education initiatives) would encounter harsh fiscal realities. The budget already...