Relating to Iran ... and the world.

• Author: Hagel, Chuck
• Position: American Thought

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OVER THE LAST few months, the world has witnessed a disturbing series of events: the assassination of the former Prime Minister of Pakistan, Benazir Bhutto: state of emergency in Georgia: Turkey threatening to invade Iraq: six members of the Afghan parliament, along with scores of others, killed in one of Afghanistan's largest ever suicide attacks; an escalating drumbeat of U.S.-Iran tensions; 76 U.S. Senators supporting a resolution urging the President to designate an entire branch of Iran's military as a terrorist organization; Pres. George W. Bush announcing unprecedented unilateral sanctions against Iran's forces: and, finally, the President warning of World War III unless Iran complies with the wishes of the West.

These events are one frame of a broad confluence of events occurring in the world today. In the Middle East, Iraq is mired in a deep and dangerous civil war, with dim prospects for national political reconciliation. The Israeli-Palestinian conflict festers and worsens, and intra-Palestinian divisions present a pivotal obstacle, creating uncertain prospects lot a U.S.-hosted peace conference. Syria is ostracized and insecure; Lebanon is paralyzed by a devastating political deadlock; Iran casts an unpredictable and ominous shadow over the region; while Egypt, Jordan, and Saudi Arabia are trapped in this dangerous net.

Globally, our relations with Russia have sunk to a new post-Cold War low. U.S.-Turkey talks are in tatters over our inability to translate Turkey's 21st century government and objectives into a relationship of mutual interests that has been the case since World War II. The U.S.-India civil nuclear assistance deal has been set back and remains in a state of uncertainty. Afghanistan continues to lose ground, which includes record-breaking opium production and the reemergence of Al Qaeda, a group that appears stronger than at any time since it was ousted from that country six years ago. The border between Afghanistan and Pakistan represents the most dangerous zone in the world, and the U.S. has little control and limited influence over it. All the while, nuclear-armed India is casting a wary eye on its nuclear armed neighbor to the west. In addition, the price of oil has edged closer to $100 per barrel. Record-breaking energy prices and surging demand are reshaping the global geopolitical economic power landscape, from Russia, China, and India to Angola, Nigeria, Venezuela, Norway, and the U.S. The world is witnessing a diffusion of power never seen before that increasingly will be the norm for the 21st century.

Events are overtaking governments as they swirl in wild gyrations around us. All too often, we mistakenly try to compartmentalize and isolate events and issues, without stopping to consider how a series of events are interconnected and impact the world. No nation can affect these events acting alone. Unless nations work to shape, influence, and guide the course of global events, events will shape themselves--and the world--leading to an ever-more-dangerous planet.

The recent uncontrollable and combustible developments present the reality of a world at a historic crossroads. This reality has forced some hopeful and positive events that can guide us to a new consensus in world affairs. Progress in North Korea as a result of the Group of Six working through a difficult and frustrating diplomatic-economic process appears to be bearing results; Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice's meetings in Turkey to address the future of Iraq with its neighbors, as well as her conferences in the Middle East to establish a bold, breakthrough framework for a Middle East peace conference in the U.S.; strong and encouraging comments by Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert and Palestinian Pres. Mahmoud Abbas about the prospects for peace; and the leaders of Turkey, France, and Germany here to confer with Pres. Bush on the great challenges of our time. The world is moving toward a consensus of common interests.

We must not squander this moment. In order to capture this opportunity, our policies, actions, and relationships must be grounded by these common interests. In the Middle East, that means an integrated strategic U.S. foreign policy that encompasses all the nations of the region, oil, nonproliferation, political reform, and, more broadly, Pakistan, Afghanistan, the Islamic world, and international powers and institutions. One dimensional optics, policies, and blunt, "black or white" rhetoric, like "you're either with us or against us" will not work, have not worked, and will fall far short of what is expected from American leadership.

As Ambassador to Afghanistan Ronald E. Neumann, president of the American Academy of Diplomacy, wrote, "Beyond the challenge of dealing with multiple actors ... is the challenge of integrating the multiple parts. Precisely because every part is difficult for someone, all of the parts need to be brought together as a package, so that commitments can balance and sustain each other.... That's the only way to de-fang the terrorist threat incubating in this critical part of the world."

The world we live in today is an...