Rejecting Ethnic Pandering in Urban Africa: A Survey Experiment on Voter Preferences in Nairobi, Kenya

• Author: Hye-Sung Kim,Jeremy Horowitz
• DOI: http://doi.org/10.1177/10659129211040516
• Published date: 01 December 2022
• Date: 01 December 2022

Article

PoliticalResearchQuarterly

2022,Vol.75(4)1240–1254

©TheAuthor(s)2021

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DOI:10.1177/10659129211040516

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RejectingEthnicPanderinginUrban

Africa:ASurveyExperimentonVoter

PreferencesinNairobi,Kenya

Hye-SungKim

1

andJeremyHorowitz

2

Abstract

Ethnicpandering,inwhichcandidatespromisetocatertotheinterestsofcoethnicvoters,ispresumedtobeaneffective

strategyforincreasingelectoralsupportinAfrica’semergingmultiethnicdemocracies.However,ethnicpolitical

mobilizationmaybedisdainedbycitizensforitsdivisiveandpolarizingeffects,particularlyinurbanareas.Asaresult,

panderingmayfallondeafearsamongAfrica’surbanvoters.ThisstudyexamineshowvotersinKenya’scapitalcity,

Nairobi,respondtoethnicpanderingusingdatafromavignetteexperimentconductedin2015andareplicationstudy

implementedin2016.Resultsshowthatrespondentsaremoresupportiveofcandidateswhomakeethnicallyinclusive

ratherthantargetedappeals,regardlessofwhetherthecandidateisidentifiedasacoethnic.Weproposethattheresults

aredrivenbyabroaddistasteamongurbanvotersforparochialpolitics,ratherthanbystrategiccalculationsrelatedto

candidateviability.

Keywords

ethnicity,ethnicpandering,campaignappeals,urbanvoters,Africa,Kenya

Introduction

Ethnicmobilizationisaroutinefeatureofelectoral

competitioninAfrica’semergingmultipartydemocracies.

Astandardassumptionintheethnicpoliticsliteratureis

thatcandidatesbolstertheirsupportamongcoethnic

votersbyappealingtosharedethnicinterests(Horowitz

1985;Posner2005).Ethnicpandering—thatis,promising

tocatertotheinterestsofone’sgroup,aboveallwith

respecttotheallocationofpatronageresourcesincluding

jobs,scholarships,fundsforroads,andotherdiscre-

tionarygoodsprovidedbythegovernment—servesas

usefulstrategyforaugmentingcoethnicsupport(Nathan

2019;Wantchekon2003).Yet,ethnicpanderingentails

risk,particularlyinAfrica’sdiverseurbanareas.

Promisestofavoronegroupwillalienatevotersfrom

othercommunities.Targetedpromisesmayalsorun

afoulwithcoethnicvoters,theintendedtargetforsuch

appeals.Africa’scitieshavebecomeconsiderablymore

integratedinrecentdecades:inter-marriageiscommon

(BandyopadhyayandGreen2021;Crespin-Boucaud

2020),agrowingshareofmixed-ethnicitycitizens

tracetheirlineagetomultiplecommunities(Dulanietal.

2021),andsocialnetworksfrequentlyextendacross

ethnicdivisions.Moreover,parochialattachmentsare

weakerinurbanareas(Kramonetal.2021;Robinson

2014).Inlinewithcontacttheory(Allport1954),we

proposethatsocialintegrationinurbanareasmaytemper

ethnicpreferences,leadingvoters—particularlylonger-

termresidentsandthosewhosesocialnetworksaremore

diverse—todisfavornarrowappealstoethnicinterests

thatpromisetofavoronegroupattheexpenseofothers.

Thispropositioncutsagainstthegrainofcontemporary

research.Recentscholarshipshowsthatpartiescontinue

torelyonappealstoethnicinterestsinurbanAfrica(Klaus

andPaller2017;Nathan2019)andthatethnicityremains

highlysalienttourbanvoters.InKenya,thefocusofthis

study,ethnicblocvotingratesinNairobi,thecapitalcity,

areonparwithruralsettings.However,wecautionagainst

drawinginferencesaboutethnicpoliticalpreferences

solelyfromobservedvotingbehavior.Asnotedinprior

1

DepartmentofPoliticalScience,WinthropUniversity,RockHill,SC,

USA

2

DepartmentofGovernment,DartmouthCollege,Hanover,NH,USA

CorrespondingAuthor:

Hye-SungKim,DepartmentofPoliticalScience,WinthropUniversity,

RockHill,SC29733,USA.

Email:kimh@winthrop.edu