Regionalism in New Democracies: The Authoritarian Origins of Voter–Party Linkages

• Author: Chantal E. Berman,Elizabeth R. Nugent
• Date: 01 December 2020
• DOI: 10.1177/1065912919862363
• Published date: 01 December 2020
• Subject Matter: Articles

https://doi.org/10.1177/1065912919862363

Political Research Quarterly

2020, Vol. 73(4) 908 –922

© 2019 University of Utah

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DOI: 10.1177/1065912919862363

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Article

Introduction

How do legacies of authoritarian governance affect pro-

cesses of voter–party alignment in newly democratizing

states? Citizens in new democracies have the opportu-

nity to (re)-form linkages with both new and legacy1

political parties, and parties in early legislative elections

seek to build durable coalitions over diverse subnational

territories. Results from first elections exert considerable

influence over political and economic outcomes moving

forward, significantly shaping possibilities for auto-

cratic retrenchment or democratic consolidation (Darden

and Grzymala-Busse 2006; O’Donnell and Schmitter

1986). Scholars benefit normatively and theoretically

from identifying the origins of voter–party linkages in

new democracies.

A compelling literature on historical legacies has dem-

onstrated the enduring effects of authoritarian policies on

the political systems of new democracies (Collier and

Collier 1991; G. Pop-Eleches and Tucker 2011). Many of

these investigations leverage cross-national research

designs to assess the impact of national political institu-

tions on public opinion and voting behavior after regime

change. Yet cross-national comparisons tend to overlook

within-country variation in these historical experiences—

specifically, the ways in which state–society relations

under authoritarianism are constructed unevenly through-

out national territory (Herbst 2000; Migdal 1988;

O’Donnell 1993). Indeed, a growing literature in the poli-

tics of development has emphasized the importance of

understanding subnational variation in political and social

processes (Pepinsky 2014; Snyder 2001).

This paper investigates the path-dependent effects of

subnational variation in authoritarian state-building strate-

gies on voter–party linkages during a democratic transi-

tion.2 State-building policies create “winners” and “losers”

from particular interventions, in turn shaping citizens’

preferences over these policy areas and forming axes of

contestation ready to be activated by democratic politics.

We argue that regional variation in state-building policies

862363PRQXXX10.1177/1065912919862363Political Research QuarterlyBerman and Nugent

research-article2019

1Princeton University, NJ, USA

2Yale University, New Haven, CT, USA

Corresponding Author:

Chantal E. Berman, Princeton University, Corwin Hall, Princeton,

NJ 08544-0001, USA.

Email: chantalb@princeton.edu

Regionalism in New Democracies:

The Authoritarian Origins of

Voter–Party Linkages

Chantal E. Berman1 and Elizabeth R. Nugent2

Abstract

We investigate the path-dependent effects of subnational variation in authoritarian state-building policies on voter–

party linkages after regime change. We argue that long-term patterns of regional favoritism and marginalization

produce patterned regional heterogeneity in the attitudes and preferences linking voters with parties. Postcolonial

state-building policies create “winners” and “losers” from particular interventions, in turn shaping local citizens’

preferences over these policy areas and forming axes of contestation ready to be activated by democratic politics.

We argue that attitudes associated with regionally consistent state-building policies should function uniformly as

determinants of vote choice across regions, while attitudes associated with regionally divergent state-building policies

should experience patterned regional variation in their effect on vote choice. We develop these arguments empirically

with historical analysis of Tunisian state-building and an original exit survey of voters in five diverse regions conducted

on the day of Tunisia’s first democratic legislative elections in 2014. Our findings contribute to a growing literature on

the importance of analyzing political transformation at the subnational level.

Keywords

elections, transitions, Middle East, Tunisia, survey methods