A regional solution to the Syrian uprising.

AuthorVira, Varun

A regional Solution to the Syrian Uprising

Evolving policies in Afghanistan and elsewhere have tarnished advocacy for a "regional solution" in the US foreign policy context as essentially a byword to mask declining US commitment and action. In the context of the Syrian uprising, however, a regional collaborative effort is not only desirable, but also appropriate. Unilateral US leverage in Syria is limited and military options are correctly off the table. The conflict is inherently tied to broader regional issues including a regional contest to remake the balance of power. Therefore, multilateral action that pushes regional stakeholders to take on leading roles is not only sensible, but is perhaps the most viable option for an offensive strategy that can unseat the Assad regime.

For the US and its international partners, Syria matters. Libya, Tunisia, Bahrain, virtually every country in the "Arab Spring" bar Egypt were or are in many ways strategic sideshows for the US, but events in Syria reverberate across the region. Syria is a pillar of stability or instability in the region, and continued violence, or worse, will greatly impact security in the Levant and across the Middle East. A fall of the Assad regime would have important strategic benefits for the US; in its efforts to contain Iran, to elevate its regional allies, and depending on the nature of a post-war Syria, enhance the security of Israel.

Yet, so far the uprising has gone from bad to worse. Thousands of Syrian protestors have already been killed in a brutal crackdown bereft of even the facade of restraint. Tanks, artillery, and now navl gunboats have been used in dense population centers, while security forces, including ground forces and snipers, have fired indiscriminately into crowds, attempting to strangle protests at birth. Power has now concentrated in the hands of regime security hardliners and the pressure on the regime to moderate its actions--if only for its own sake--have consistently fallen on deaf ears.

That protests continue daily is testament only to the bravery and perseverance of the Syrian protestors, but despite their best efforts, the opposition has failed to unite or reach critical mass. Key centers of gravity for the Syrian regime - the major cities of Damascus and Aleppo, home to over 40 percent of the Syrian population, and the Syrian business community, a critical regime constituency --- remain on the sidelines, still uncommitted to either side. Regime survival remains a distinct possibility, despite mounting international pressure, including from Arab neighbors and former partners such as Russia. Reconciliation and reform look increasingly unlikely, especially not in a way or on a scale that would satisfy the demands of the protestors.

As the death toll mounts, unilateral US options are few and growing scarcer. Military options are correctly not on the table. Syria is most certainly not Libya. The Syrian military machine is very significant and the military organization of the opposition non-existent, and even if this were not the case, there is absolutely no appetite, or even capacity, to countenance such action. Politically too, US leverage is limited. Decades of testy relations and a good portion of the last decade without US diplomatic representation have ensured a broad array of marked policy differences between Damascus and Washington, and a limited US ability to engage, influence or constrain the actions of key regime powerbrokers.

With that said, the US has policy options, some of which have not been fully employed. Ambassador Ford's positive reception in Hama for example highlighted the reserves of US moral and "soft" power that can be harnessed with a...

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