La reforma en serio.
Position | TT: The reform is for real. |
Los brasileños celebran el carnaval en febrero, pero el gobierno está bailando la samba desde el año pasado. En cuanto el Fondo Monetario Internacional anunció en noviembre el plan de rescate de US$41.500 millones, los legisladores comenzaron a bailotear y rechazaron una parte importante de las medidas de austeridad propuestas por el presidente Fernando Henrique Cardoso. Es muy probable que el Congreso apruebe las medidas en un segundo intento dentro de varias semanas, pero el bamboleo le costará a los contribuyentes por lo menos US$250 millones adicionales este año. No es un golpe mortal, pero si indica que el programa de estabilización económica de Brasil, conocido como el Plan Real, está lejos de la realidad.
Es cierto que la inflación ha caído en picado de un por ciento descomunal a una tasa anual por debajo del 10%. Es cierto que se han privatizado activos por miles de millones de dólares, aunque con la gran ayuda de fondos estatales de pensiones y del banco de fomento nacional. Y también es cierto que, aparte de todo el jogo de cintura, el gobierno hace cabriolas con un déficit presupuestario que equivale al 8, 1% del Producto Interno Bruto (PIB), es decir, US$60,700 millones, y con una moneda sobrevalorada, el real.
Aun suponiendo que la moneda no se desplome, el jolgorio ha terminado. Ya se sienten dolores en sitios hasta hace poco desconocidos, sobre todo en Estados Unidos. Después de todo, Brasil ha sido el alma de la fiesta en América Latina en los últimos años. La región representa la tercera parte de las ventas de Avon, el 27% de Colgate-Palmolive, el 19% de American Airlines, el 19% de Fiat y hasta para la empresa que reseñamos en el artículo de portada de este mes, la compañía eléctrica AES, un notable 30%.
América Latina, sin contar a México, es la única región del mundo donde Estados Unidos todavía disfruta de un superávit comercial. A medida que se...
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