Reducing America's Correctional Populations: A Strategic Plan
| Published date | 01 June 2010 |
| Date | 01 June 2010 |
| DOI | http://doi.org/10.3818/JRP.12.1.2010.9 |
| Subject Matter | Special Issue on Sentencing and Corrections in the States |
*
Reducing America’s Correctional Populations:
A Strategic Plan
James Austin
JFA Institute
* Abstract
It has been 40 years (1969) since a decline in the nation’s prison population has been report-
ed. In 1969 our crime rate was 3,680 per 100,000 population and our incarceration rate
was 97 per 100,000. Today the crime rate is 3,667 (the same as 1969) but our incarceration
rate is about five times higher, at 508 per 100,000. With the soaring costs of corrections
and a stagnant economy, policy makers are searching for ways to lower their investment in
corrections. The only ways to lower correctional populations are to reduce the number of
admissions and the lengths of stay in prison or through probation and parole. It is highly
unlikely that such a reduction can be achieved by reducing recidivism rates, which have
remained unchanged for at least 25 years and are unlikely to change. Rather, the solution
lies in simply returning to the same sentencing and correctional policies that existed a few
decades ago when our crime rate was what it is today. This paper outlines the proven meth-
ods that have been used in other jurisdictions (both currently and historically) and can be
used to significantly reduce the entire correctional system.
Support for this paper was provided by the Research and Evaluation Division of the National
Institute of Corrections as part of the Norval Morris project. A copy of the full report
submitted by the author is available at www.nicic.org/Norval. The contents of this article
reflect the views of the author and do not necessarily reflect the official views of the National
Institute of Corrections. The author would like to acknowledge the assistance of Todd Clear,
John Irwin, Candance McCoy, Alan Mobley, Barbara Owens and Josh Page, who helped
draft sections of the report and provided an excellent critique of the entire document.
JUSTICE RESEARCH AND POLICY, Vol. 12, No. 1, 2010
© 2010 Justice Research and Statistics Association
Sp e c i a l iS S u e o n Se n t e n c i n g a n d co r r e c t i o n S i n t h e St a t e S
P
As state, local and the federal governments face increased concerns about the size
and costs of their criminal justice agencies, there is a growing interest in lower-
ing the number of people in prison, jail, or being supervised on probation and
parole. Often these concerns are expressed more in ideological rather than sci-
entific terms. This is not to diminish the intentions of those who either advocate
or reject efforts to lower correctional populations. Rather, my concern is that
few people seem to understand dynamics and attributes of these four major cor-
rectional populations. Such an understanding would help one develop a detailed
roadmap on how correctional systems can be reduced.
This paper begins with the position that it is possible and desirable to return
to a level of punishment more proportional to accepted international and histori-
cal standards that existed in this country some 20 years ago. At that time, the en-
tire correctional system numbered some 3.7 million, which is about one half the
current size of 7.3 million people. The paper draws heavily from a report entitled
“Unlocking America,” which was released in November 2007 and was authored
by several criminologists, including the author of this paper.1 That report makes
the argument that the current state and federal prison populations could be sig-
nificantly reduced by reorienting current sentencing and correctional policies that
are either being used in certain jurisdictions and/or have been successfully used in
the past. At the root of the recommendations for reducing the prison population
is the conclusion that our current form and range of punishments are dispropor-
tionate to the harm that has been inflicted. Moreover, current efforts to punish
those who commit such crimes are not cost-effective. At the end of this paper a
simulation of the proposed reforms are presented to illustrate the effects of such
reforms on both the national correctional population and on selected states over
an eight-year time frame. It should be emphasized that well-intentioned efforts to
lower recidivism rates by providing greater levels of rehabilitative-type services,
while desirable, will have only a minimal impact on overall recidivism rates and
little impact on prison populations.
Since the “Unlocking America” report was released, there has been some
indication that states are beginning to reevaluate their current correctional poli-
cies. No doubt this reevaluation has been largely fueled by the growing fiscal
economic crisis, which intensified in the latter part of 2008. While some may see
this current situation as a crisis, it also represents a rare opportunity to change a
system of punishment and control that we can no longer afford and that delivers
diminishing returns on public safety. Hopefully, this paper will provide a set of
options that, if implemented, would produce a smaller, more humane and cost-
effective correctional system.
1
The authors of that report were James Austin, Todd Clear, Troy Duster, David F.
Greenberg, John Irwin, Candace McCoy, Alan Mobley, Barbara Owen, and Joshua Page.
* Historic and Current Trends in the U.S. Correctional Populations
Beginning in the 1970s, the United States embarked on a three-decade-long shift
in its sentencing and penal policies. This shift in policy was rooted in the belief
that one of the best ways to confront what was perceived as a growing crime rate
was to radically 1) increase the number of persons being sentenced to prison, and
2) extend their period of incarceration. Over the next 30 years, sentencing laws
were reformed, criminal justice priorities altered, and most importantly, some two
million prison and jail beds were constructed and opened.
Prior to 1970, there had been, at best, modest changes in the rate of incarcera-
tion. Indeed, there had been some reductions in periods of war, when large num-
bers of males had been drafted to serve in WWII, the Korean War, and the Vietnam
War (see Figure 1). But these fluctuations were relatively mild compared to what
has occurred since 1970, after which the prison population grew from less than
200,000 to nearly 1.6 million by 2008.2
Despite these historic increases, the prison population continues to rise in most
states, albeit at a slower pace. A summary of the individual state and federal prison
population projections available in 2008 showed that the national prison population
would reach approximately 1.8 million prisoners by the year 2011 under current
criminal justice trends and policies.3
2
http://www.ojp.gov/bjs/prisons.htm
3
http://www.pewtrusts.org/uploadedFiles/wwwpewtrustsorg/Reports/State-based_pol
icy/PSPP_prison_projections_0207.pdf
* Figure 1
U.S. UCR Crime Trends and Sentenced Prisoners in Federal and State Institutions
per 100,000 Population, 1931–2008
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
200820011991198119711961195119411931
Incarceration Rate
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
Crime Rate
Crime Rate
Incarceration Rate
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