Redistricting - the other Y2K problem.

• Author: Storey, Tim
• Position: Legislative districts - Includes related articles on sampling techniques of the Census Bureau and National Conference of State Legislatures

If you're not ready now for the deluge of data from the 2000 census, you're very nearly too late.

The first volleys in the 2000 redistricting wars will be launched on Election Day 1998, when Democrats and Republicans try to secure control of legislatures in advance of the decennial free-for-all known as redistricting. Both major parties and many political professionals are looking ahead to it as an opportunity tempered with a healthy close of caution.

But when it comes down to the nuts and bolts, the task of drawing new lines primarily falls to legislators and legislative staff, who must weigh all the legal and political factors and produce district maps for use until 2010. Now is the time for states to start getting ready or risk having a court draw new districts for the 2002 elections.

At least three states - Florida, North Carolina and Tennessee - are still in court defending 1990s redistricting plans. Colorado, New York and North Carolina will hold 1998 elections under newly minted maps, so it may seem too early to start talking about 2000 redistricting. Jeff Wice, a staff veteran of the past two redistricting cycles for the New York Assembly, observed that "counting for the 2000 census may start before 1990s redistricting litigation ends."

The one given of the 1990s redistricting cycle was lawsuits. Forty-two states were engaged in litigation during the decade. States like Florida, New York and North Carolina had to participate in more than a half dozen lawsuits each. But 2000 looms with new census figures and a constitutional requirement to make districts equal in population, so it must be damn the torpedoes, full speed ahead.

That is the other year 2000 problem - redistricting must be accomplished despite the political and legal land mines that lie ahead. But like the 2000 computer problem, legislatures can be prepared with some careful advance planning. States should be doing a number of things now: working with the Census Bureau, acquiring the right technology and studying up on the process.

WORKING WITH THE CENSUS BUREAU

Working with the U.S. Census Bureau now will save states plenty of headaches in the next few years. Fortunately, most legislatures have maintained an ongoing relationship with the bureau, including participating in the project to define the geographic areas that will be used to report 2000 census data. Now they are being asked to submit their voting districts, or precincts, to incorporate into census geography. Most states built congressional and legislative districts in 1990 using precincts, so it is very helpful to have those voting districts match census geography. The only way for that to happen is for the state to provide the precinct lines to the bureau. Legislative leaders, along with governors, have been asked to designate liaisons to work on this project.

The bureau also will be working to make sure that legislatures are prepared to handle the huge volume of data needed for redistricting when it is delivered in 2001. it will come primarily through CD-ROM and the Internet, so states must have computer systems ready. Preparing requests for proposals for technology purchases should be a top priority for states in the next several months.

"Create a timeline that includes the deadlines and target dates for issuing the RFP, receiving and evaluating proposals, making selection decisions and completing contract negotiation," advises Mary Galligan, principal analyst with the Kansas Legislative Reference Bureau and a redistricting veteran. "Leave yourself enough time to go back and start again if all the proposals are unacceptable."

ACQUIRING TECHNOLOGY

Purchasing computers and software for redistricting is "like the arms race," says Lawrence Leftoff, president of Public Systems Associates, a redistricting technology vendor. Caucuses, parties and special interest groups all...