Reconsidering the “Palin Effect” in the 2008 U.S. Presidential Election

• Author: Edward M. Burmila,Josh M. Ryan
• DOI: 10.1177/1065912913508011
• Published date: 01 December 2013
• Date: 01 December 2013
• Subject Matter: Replication Study

Political Research Quarterly

66(4) 952 –959

© 2013 University of Utah

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DOI: 10.1177/1065912913508011

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Replication Study

Introduction

In a recent issue of this journal, “The ‘Palin Effect’ in the

2008 U.S. Presidential Election” by Jonathan Knuckey

(2012) addressed a substantively interesting question:

Did the selection of Sarah Palin negatively affect John

McCain’s share of the vote? In line with the conventional

postelection narrative and other research on the “Palin

Effect” (see Elis, Hillygus, and Nie 2010), the article con-

cludes that Palin hurt McCain among key moderate and

independent voters.1 Specifically, the article makes three

claims. First, Palin had a measurable, independent effect

on the presidential popular vote in 2008. Second, she hurt

the McCain campaign by driving away independent and

moderate voters. Third, Palin is a uniquely divisive figure

and her effect on the presidential vote was larger than any

recent vice-presidential nominee.

We see great value in this research question, in terms

of understanding the dynamics of the 2008 election and

for the broader question of the effect of running mate

choice on presidential elections (Holbrook 1991, 1994).

However, our reading of the article suggests that the

evidence presented does not support two of the conclu-

sions reached. In this research note, we will argue the

following:

1. The finding that Palin hurt McCain among mod-

erate and independent voters is based on a flawed

interpretation of the empirical analyses of the

2008 American National Election Studies (ANES)

data used in the article. When the results are cor-

rectly interpreted using marginal effects in place

of the predicted probabilities reported in the

article, the data do not support this finding.

Furthermore, the results in Table 1 of the original

paper show that the coefficient for the Palin feel-

ing thermometer variable is positive, and there-

fore the appropriate interpretation of the original

model is that attitudes toward Palin are positively

correlated with McCain vote choice. This rela-

tionship does not support the conclusion that

Palin hurt McCain among the electorate as a

whole or, as we will show, among independents

(and moderates) in particular.

2. The finding that Palin’s effect on the 2008 race

was larger than that of any recent vice-presiden-

tial nominee cannot be stated with confidence.

Estimates of the effects of a variable within a

model are inherently uncertain. When 95 percent

confidence intervals are included, the results

show that Palin’s effect overlaps many other vice-

presidential nominees and may not have been the

largest in recent history.

3. A simpler, re-specified model with greater predic-

tive power than the original allows for easier

interpretation and shows high evaluations of Palin

508011PRQXXX10.1177/1065912913508011Burmila and RyanBurmila and Ryan

research-article2013

1Bradley University, Peoria, IL, USA

Corresponding Author:

Edward M. Burmila, Department of Political Science, Bradley

University, Bradley Hall 445, 1501 W. Bradley Avenue, Peoria, IL

61625, USA.

Email: eburmila@bradley.edu

Reconsidering the “Palin Effect” in the

2008 U.S. Presidential Election

Edward M. Burmila1 and Josh M. Ryan1

Abstract

“The ‘Palin Effect’ in the U.S. 2008 Presidential Election” analyzes the effect of Sarah Palin on presidential vote choice.

Two of the substantive conclusions are (1) Palin cost McCain votes among independents and moderates, and (2) Palin

had the largest effect on vote choice of any recent vice-presidential nominee. Our analysis shows that the data do

not support these findings. We find that respondent evaluations of Palin have a positive effect on McCain vote choice,

even among independents and moderates, and Palin’s effect on the election outcome is comparable with ten of the

last fifteen vice-presidential nominees.

Keywords

2008, presidential elections, vice-presidential nominees, elections