On the defensive: "one thing is certain.... Military intervention in Iraq and the climate of open rebellion that ensued profoundly have altered the terms of the [terrorist] threat and now condition its development.".

• Author: Bruguiere, Jean-Louis
• Position: International Affairs

NO ONE CAN DENY that today's terrorist threat is particularly high. It reached an extremely dangerous level at the dawn of 2007. France is aware that the terrorist risk represented by the Algerian Salafist Group for Preaching and Combat (GSPC) Islamic Extremist Movement--its rebellion has resulted in 150,000 deaths (mostly civilians) since 1992--has been heightened by the run-up to the presidential elections and has reinforced its vigilance and toughened its anti-terrorist procedures accordingly.

The terrorist threat has grown continuously and diversified itself by constantly multiplying its networks on a global scale. Now, for the first time in history, no region of the world is safe.

However, the real scale of the terrorist threat and predictions about how it may change in the future are very difficult to measure. The media often have overemphasized certain sensitive or critical events without really addressing the structural dimension of a phenomenon that only is rendered visible by its most violent manifestations. Like an earthquake, a terrorist attack never is an isolated event. It is the result of a build up of pressure or, in this context, a long-term strategy. This strategy of terrorism increasingly is diversified, taking into account its enemies' strengths and weaknesses and demonstrating a frightening opportunism in the face of world development, geopolitical aspects, and the political agenda of the world's states.

The Islamic threat not only has become globalized, it has developed a globalized strategy of attack. This can be seen in terms of targets and the means used. In 2001, Al Qaeda and the other terrorist networks that had joined them--or that share the same ideology--shifted from traditional methods of bombing to using civilian aircraft as weapons of mass destruction. These have been developed through diversification, with the sole objective of intensifying the message of terror.

Suicide bombing operations used by Palestinian organizations and Chechen terrorists now are, since the Iraqi conflict, also employed by the terrorist networks that have joined the movement of the late Abu Musab al-Zarqawi. This diversification of methods also is illustrated by the capacity of certain networks to use unconventional weapons--chemical, biological, or even radioactive--known as "dirty bombs." These are not merely suppositions, but serious hypotheses that must be considered by the Western intelligence and anti-terrorist services.

In 2002, France successfully dismantled a radical Islamic network that intended to attack its territory usIng toxic substances. Europe incontestably has become a major target for Al Qaeda since the strengthening of the role of the GSPC. Yet, it is not the sole target, either geographically or in terms of the terrorists' motives and objectives. Al Qaeda and the organizations and structures working alongside it adeptly have integrated methods of communication into their strategy by using satellite television channels and the Internet. This opportunistic use of media broadcasting, digital transmission, and provocation to communicate threats has become Al Qaeda's new weapon, helping them promote their specific objectives as well as the general feeling of insecurity and fear. Besides mastering the use of these Al Qaeda has the details of the global economy into its strategy, particularly the interdependence of financial markets and their volatility, the energy crisis, and commodities exchanges.

International terrorism of Islamic origin, which is characterized as being all at once highly decentralized, polymorphous in its structures and organization, everchanging, and global, is at the center of the problems and risks that our societies are facing. These risks threaten our collective safety and the individual liberties that are the basis of our democratic societies. They likewise are political and geopolitical, as shown by the Iraqi dilemma and recent developments in the Middle East. Finally, the risks are societal and environmental, and could lead to economic or monetary crises through terrorist action.

A fragile West

In the face of this global threat, the reaction of the democratic, especially Western, countries and the regimes associated with them is fragile and lacks unity. As yet, we have been unable to agree upon a global and unified anti-terrorist approach, given that we have not even managed to agree upon a common definition of terrorism. Despite the gravity of the situation, it seems that a certain egocentrism reigns and that the individual interests of states prevail. The European Union--with its 450,000,000 consumers--is a major player in the global economy, despite its political disparities and the absence of a constitution that would legitimize its institutions. In the past decade, Europe especially has seen the growth of militant Islamic networks and groups devoted to the Salafist cause, which today have joined the elusive Al Qaeda movement. This radical Islamic...