Reacting to the Improbable: Handgun Carrying Permit Application Rates in the Wake of High-Profile Mass Shootings

• Published date: 01 November 2017
• DOI: 10.1177/1088767917699657
• Author: Christine Kwiatkowski,Brandon Turchan,April M. Zeoli
• Date: 01 November 2017
• Subject Matter: Articles

https://doi.org/10.1177/1088767917699657

Homicide Studies

2017, Vol. 21(4) 267 –286

© 2017 SAGE Publications

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DOI: 10.1177/1088767917699657

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Article

Reacting to the Improbable:

Handgun Carrying Permit

Application Rates in the Wake

of High-Profile Mass Shootings

Brandon Turchan1, April M. Zeoli2,

and Christine Kwiatkowski2

Abstract

Fear of crime is a frequently cited reason individuals carry firearms. Mass shootings are

particularly fear-inducing events, and for some incidents, media coverage inundates

the public with details of these tragedies. This reporting may increase individuals’ fear

of such incidents and, subsequently, may spur demand for handgun carrying permits

(HCPs). Newspaper reports have documented changes in HCP application rates

following high-profile mass shootings. We empirically assess this possible relationship

using HCP application rates in all 95 counties in Tennessee from 2008 through 2014.

Results suggest certain high-profile mass shootings are significantly associated with

increased HCP application rates.

Keywords

firearm, concealed carry, weapon permit, mass murder, gun carrying

Introduction

In recent years, multiple mass shootings within the United States have captured the

nation’s attention. These tragic events have sparked widespread debates about how

best to protect ourselves and others from mass shooters. One of the more memorable

and oft-repeated quotes from this debate heralds from the National Rifle Association’s

1Rutgers University, Newark, NJ, USA

2Michigan State University, East Lansing, USA

Corresponding Author:

Brandon Turchan, School of Criminal Justice, Rutgers University, 123 Washington Street, Room 550,

Newark, NJ 07102, USA.

Email: brandon.turchan@rutgers.edu

699657HSXXXX10.1177/1088767917699657Homicide StudiesTurchan et al.

research-article2017

268 Homicide Studies 21(4)

Wayne LaPierre: “The only thing that stops a bad guy with a gun is a good guy with a

gun” (LaPierre, 2012: pp. 5). To protect oneself and others with a gun, one must be

carrying a gun at the critical moment. Laws in all 50 states regulate the carrying of

firearms in public, and, in general, one must apply for a permit to carry concealed

firearms. In this research, we analyze whether applications for handgun carrying per-

mits rise in response to certain high-profile mass shootings, using the state of Tennessee

as the study location. We hypothesize that the occurrence of certain high-profile mass

shootings will generate short-term increased public demand for handgun carrying

permits.

Literature Review

The logic behind how a high-profile mass shooting may be associated with an increase

in handgun carry permit applications has four steps. First, a mass shooting must occur.

Some mass shootings reach the second step by receiving widespread media attention,

thus becoming “high profile.” Third, members of the public who are exposed to news

of these mass shootings, depending on the circumstances of the mass shooting and

how the stories are framed, may develop an increased sense of fear or perceived risk

of crime. These factors may motivate people to take the final step and apply for a

handgun carry permit as a protective action against crime victimization.

The proliferation of the modern 24/7 cable news cycle and Internet news aggrega-

tion renders the nature of the media coverage of a mass shooting particularly impor-

tant. Mass shootings that occur seemingly at random in public settings tend to receive

greater levels of media attention (Duwe, 2000; Fox & Levin, 1998). Exposure to con-

stant media coverage of a crime may influence people’s perceptions and level of fear

by making distant tragic events feel like they are happening or could happen in one’s

own neighborhood (Fox & DeLateur, 2014). Perfectly illustrating the notion that

media coverage may make mass shootings seem likely to occur in one’s community,

TIME magazine released a cover following the Columbine tragedy picturing the shoot-

ers with the caption “Monsters Next Door” (Fox & DeLateur, 2014).

High-profile mass shootings are relatively infrequent events (Duwe, 2000); how-

ever, anecdotal evidence suggests people perceive the likelihood of being victimized

by such incidents as far greater than their actual probability of victimization. A 2012

Gallup Poll surveyed adults and found 22% thought it “very likely” and 30% thought

it “somewhat likely” that a Newtown-type shooting, which was the second deadliest

mass shooting in U.S. history (at the time), would happen in their own community

(Saad, 2012). Given the rarity of mass shootings, especially one the magnitude of

Newtown, CT, these survey results suggest factors beyond objective probability analy-

sis influence the public’s perceptions of the frequency of such incidents.

The discrepancy in perceived likelihood of a mass shooting can be conceptualized

as probability neglect (Sunstein, 2003). Probability neglect posits that the severity of

extreme individual acts of violence may generate emotionally charged evaluations of

risk that dismiss the low likelihood that such incidents are repeatable (Sunstein, 2003).

A plausible factor contributing to individuals’ probability neglect when it comes to