Race and policing in the 2016 presidential election: Black lives matter, the police, and dog whistle politics

• Published date: 01 May 2020
• Date: 01 May 2020
• Author: Devon Johnson,Kevin Drakulich,Kevin H. Wozniak,John Hagan
• DOI: http://doi.org/10.1111/1745-9125.12239

Received: 21 February 2019 Revised: 6 December 2019 Accepted: 16 December 2019

DOI: 10.1111/1745-9125.12239

ARTICLE

Race and policing in the 2016 presidential election:

Black lives matter, the police, and dog whistle politics

Kevin Drakulich1Kevin H. Wozniak2John Hagan3

Devon Johnson4

1School of Criminology and Criminal Justice,

Northeastern University

2Sociology Department, University of

Massachusetts Boston

3Department of Sociology, Northwestern

University,and Amer ican Bar Foundation

4Department of Criminology, Law and

Society, George Mason University

Correspondence

KevinDrakulich, School of Criminology and

Criminal Justice, Northeastern University,

Boston,MA 02115.

Email:k.drak ulich@northeastern.edu

A series of deaths of Black Americans at the hands of the

police sparked mass protests, received extensive media

coverage, and fueled a new civil rights movement in

the years leading up to the 2016 presidential election.

Both major party nominees campaigned on issues of race

and policing in different ways. Drawing on colorblind

racism theories and the history of law-and-order politics,

we explore how views of race relations and the police

were associated with voting behavior. We ask, on the one

hand, whether people were engaged with the civil rights

issues raised by Black Lives Matter and, on the other

hand, whether Trump’s expressions of support for the

police functioned as a racial “dog whistle” to mobilize a

particular set of voters. Using the 2016 American National

Election Studies (ANES) Time Series Study, we find that

concern about biased policing and support for the civil

rights movement seeking to address it were associated with

increased turnout among Democrats and more votes for

Clinton. In addition, consistent with a dog whistle effect,

claims of supporting the police were connected to votes

for Trump mainly among those with high levels of racial

resentment. We conclude by discussing the symbolic role

of police in American society and politics.

KEYWORDS

Black Lives Matter, perceptions of the police, police bias, politics, racism

370 © 2020 American Society of Criminology wileyonlinelibrary.com/journal/crim Criminology.2020;58:370–402.

DRAKULICH ET AL.371

Several important events during the second decade of the twenty-first century in the United States

echoed events in the 1960s (Kennedy & Schuessler, 2014; Samuels, 2014; Whack, 2017). Just as vio-

lent, frequently fatal confrontations between Black Americans and police officers sparked dozens of

riots in cities across the country during the “long, hot summers” of the late 1960s (National Advisory

Commission, 1968), the deaths of a series of Black Americans at the hands of police between 2014

and 2016 sparked mass public protests and once again catapulted civil rights issues to the forefront

of the national agenda (Gately & Stolberg, 2015; Thorsen & Giegerich, 2014). A diverse coalition of

activists joined together under the banner of Black Lives Matter (BLM) and played instrumental roles

in organizing public protests and targetingpolitical campaign events (Lowery, 2016). Supporters of the

BLM movement specifically demanded police reform to preventracially biased policing and excessive

use of force, but they also raised broader issues of systemic racism and social problems faced byother

marginalized groups (Black Lives Matter, n.d.; Cobbina, 2019; Lowery, 2016). Those involved in the

counter-response to BLM used traditional and social media to promote slogans including “all livesmat-

ter” to challenge the civil rights claims as well as “blue lives matter” to express solidarity with police

and highlight the dangers police officers face (Bacon, 2016; Carey & McAllister,2014; Markon, Nirap-

pil, & Lowery, 2016). Black Lives Matter and Blue Lives Matter offered explicitly competing frames.

The police were variously portrayed as heroes under attack or as perpetrators of systemic racism. BLM

protestors were variously portrayed as civil rights activists or as “cop-hating thugs.”

During the 2016 presidential campaign, Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton and Republican nom-

inee Donald Trump similarly employed competing rhetorical frames intended to mobilize the support

of voters who shared their perceptions of BLM and law enforcement (e.g., Hill & Marion, 2018). Clin-

ton aligned herself with the BLM movement (Glanton, 2016). After the high-profile death of Freddie

Gray, who sustained fatal injuries while in police custody, Clinton gave a speech in Baltimore calling

for police and criminal justice reform (Bouie, 2015; Grawert, 2016). In the first presidential debate,

Clinton emphasized support for the police generally, especially all the “good, brave police officers.”

She also raised a specific concern, however, that race “still determines too much,” including “how

[people are] treated in the criminal justice system” and that “everyone should be respected by the law,”

but she then tempered this language by emphasizing that “everyone should respect the law” and that

“implicit bias is a problem for everyone” (Blake, 2016, para. 251–255). In short, Clinton attempted to

strike a balanced position, acknowledging evidence of systemic racism in the criminal justice system

while affirming general support and respect for police officers.

In contrast, Donald Trump was both explicitly and affectively pro-police. In speeches, Trump fre-

quently declared that “we loveour police officers” (Nuzzi, 2016, para. 15) and “I love the police, they’re

the greatest” (Parker, 2016, para. 7). Trump accused Clinton, BLM protesters, and much of the polit-

ical Left of being motivated by anti-police feelings (e.g., Alcindor, 2016). He opposed BLM, saying

in September 2015 that, “I think they’re trouble. I think they’re looking for trouble” (Campbell, 2015,

para. 2) and commenting that a BLM protestor allegedly assaulted by Trump supporters “maybe …

should have been roughed up” (Johnson & Jordan, 2015, para. 1). More broadly, Trump emphasized

a “law-and-order” theme throughout his campaign by portraying crime as an out-of-control problem.

When he officially accepted the Republican nomination, he said, “An attack on law enforcement is an

attack on all Americans. I have a message to every last person threatening the peace on our streets and

the safety of our police: When I take the oath of office next year, I will restore law and order to our

country” (quoted in Bacon, 2016, para. 2).

In short, the 2016 presidential candidates made competing claims about race relations and policing

in apparent efforts to mobilize particular groups of voters. Our interest is in how these issues were

connected to actual voting behavior among the public. Weuse a nationally representative survey of the

voting-eligible population conducted around the 2016 election to explore this question, considering the

372 DRAKULICH ET AL.

ways that public attitudes toward the police, race, and the BLM movement were connected to voting

and vote choice.

Based on the statements of the candidates—and informed by scholarly work on colorblind racism

and the history of law-and-order politics—we focus on two separate ways these issues may have been

connected to voting behavior. First, we explore whether support for the BLM movement and con-

cern about its central issue—racially disparate policing—was associated with greater turnout among

Democrats and more support for Hillary Clinton (the candidate who more closely aligned herself with

the movement and its concerns). Second, we investigate the role that support for the police and racial

attitudes played in generating turnout among Republicans and votes for Donald Trump. In particular,

we consider the possibility that Trump’s rhetoric about support for the police served as a dog whistle for

voters concerned about the relative status of Black versus White Americans as media commentators,

scholars, and BLM activists argued at the time (Bacon, 2016; Lee, 2016; Vega, 2016). López (2014,

p. 4) defined dog whistle rhetoric as “speaking in code to a target audience.” Such rhetoric allows

for politicians to speak about taboo subjects while retaining plausible deniability that they violated

any social norms. In the post–Civil Rights era, it became less socially acceptable to express openly

racist sentiments or stereotypes about people of color (Mendelberg, 2001). At the same time, a key

component of the Republican “southern strategy” was to use law-and-order rhetoric to signal to poten-

tial voters who opposed the changes sought by the civil rights movement, a practice that continued in

subsequent decades (e.g., Beckett & Sasson, 2004; Tonry, 2011).

The answers to these questions matter.First and most directly, they can be helpful in evaluating some

of the competing public narratives about the meaning of race and policing in political context. Second,

criminologists have long argued that public views of the police—the “gatekeepers” of the criminal

justice system and representatives of the power of the state—matter. In particular, perceptions of the

police as racially biased can diminish their legitimacy, reduce cooperation with the police and engage-

ment in informal social control, and increase fear of crime and crime itself (e.g., Anderson, 1999; Bobo

& Thompson, 2006; Drakulich, 2013; Drakulich & Crutchfield, 2013; Kirk & Matsuda, 2011; Kirk &

Papachristos, 2011; Sunshine & Tyler,2003). Through this work, we speak to the political relevance of

views of the police, highlighting a different waythat views of the police may matter, and we raise trou-

bling questions about the meaning of support for the police—and the prospects for more widespread

police legitimacy—when the police are used symbolically in divisively partisan and racialized ways.

The findings also have implications for the viability of police reform and criminal justice reform more

generally.Finally, the results shed light on some of the ways that racial civil rights movements—andt he

backlashes and counter-movements to these movements—play out in public opinion and are connected

to political behavior.

1POLITICAL RELEVANCE OF THE POLICE AND RACE

The 2016 presidential election was held in the wake of substantial national discourse about race and

policing. We explore two ways in which the issues of race relations and policing may have been con-

nected to voting behavior in this election: whether concern about racially disparate policing or support

for the BLM movement was connected to turnout or votes for Democrat Hillary Clinton, and whether

support for police acted as a racial dog whistle associated with Republican turnout and support for

Donald Trump. Two literatures are relevantto understanding these possibilities. First, collective action

frames are useful for understanding how social movement actors seek to shape public opinion in ways

that advance their agenda—and often provokecounter-framing efforts. Second, conceptions of moder n

racism and criminological political histories illuminate the meaning of law and order political rhetoric.