Public Opinion and Death Penalty Policy Under Direct Democracy Institutions: A Longitudinal Analysis of the American States

• Author: Christian Caron
• DOI: 10.1177/1532673X20943560
• Date: 01 January 2021
• Published date: 01 January 2021
• Subject Matter: Articles

https://doi.org/10.1177/1532673X20943560

American Politics Research

2021, Vol. 49(1) 91 –105

© The Author(s) 2020

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DOI: 10.1177/1532673X20943560

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Article

Long-term trends suggest the death penalty is in decline in

the U.S., especially when measured in terms of usage. Over

the past two decades, death sentences have declined pre-

cipitously as attention to wrongful convictions has risen

(Baumgartner et al., 2008). Moreover, in many of the states

that continue to issue death sentences, executions have

become so rare that the punishment is effectively a more

expensive form of life without parole (LWOP). Indeed, the

condemned usually have their sentences reduced to LWOP

on appeal (Baumgartner et al., 2018). But the minority of

inmates who are denied such relief may, too, ultimately be

spared, due to both the slow pace of the appeals process and

the high frequency of stays of execution. As further evi-

dence of the penalty’s decline, several governors have

recently imposed moratoria on executions. In short, with

the exception of a small number of states—most notably

Texas—capital punishment is virtually extinct in practice,

instead serving a mostly symbolic purpose (Steiker &

Steiker, 2016).

Although several states have abolished capital punish-

ment since the turn of the century, the fact is that the death

penalty remains a legal punishment in 28 states at the time of

this writing. The question motivating this study is why a pub-

lic policy that is significantly costlier than the alternative

while usually resulting in the same outcome is still on the

books in the majority of states. To be sure, public opinion,

which remains supportive of the death penalty in the abstract,

is part of the explanation (Baumgartner et al., 2008, 2018;

Erikson et al., 1993; Lax & Phillips, 2012). As Progressive

reformers theorized over a century ago, however, the ability

of public opinion to shape policy may depend on whether a

state permits direct democracy. Building on this argument, I

contend that the initiative and popular referendum have pro-

vided an extra layer of protection to death penalty statutes by

directly and indirectly improving government’s responsive-

ness to public preferences. Additionally, this study is the first

to address the related question of whether, and under what

conditions, direct democracy promotes congruence between

majority opinion and death penalty policy. While there may

seem to be a fine line between policy responsiveness and

congruence, it is important to draw a distinction between the

two: the fact that state policy generally changes in response

to public opinion does not imply that opinion majorities

always prevail (Lax & Phillips, 2009a, 2012; Lewis &

Jacobsmeier, 2017). Crucially, Progressives’ arguments in

favor of direct democracy implied that these institutions

943560APRXXX10.1177/1532673X20943560American Politics ResearchCaron

research-article2020

1University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, USA

Corresponding Author:

Christian Caron, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, 361

Hamilton Hall, CB 3265, Chapel Hill, NC 27599, USA.

Email: cjcaron@unc.edu

Public Opinion and Death Penalty Policy

Under Direct Democracy Institutions:

A Longitudinal Analysis of the

American States

Christian Caron1

Abstract

Capital punishment remains legal in most U.S. states even though only a small number of them regularly impose it. I attribute

the persistence of death penalty statutes to the existence of direct democracy institutions in about half the states. Applying

a longitudinal research design that leverages annual estimates of state death penalty opinion, I show that these institutions

strengthen the connection between public opinion and capital punishment’s legality, indicating that they foster policy

responsiveness. By extension, because citizens have generally favored capital punishment, I find that direct democracy states

are more likely to have the death penalty. I also demonstrate that direct democracy increases the likelihood that policy will

be congruent with majority opinion, especially in states where opinion leans strongly in one direction. The representation-

enhancing effect of direct democracy, however, does not extend to the punishment’s application, as measured by states’

issuance of death sentences.

Keywords

state politics, public opinion, direct democracy, death penalty, policy representation