Protests and Voter Defections in Electoral Autocracies: Evidence From Russia

• Published date: 01 October 2020
• Date: 01 October 2020
• Author: Katerina Tertytchnaya
• DOI: 10.1177/0010414019843556
• Subject Matter: Articles

https://doi.org/10.1177/0010414019843556

Comparative Political Studies

2020, Vol. 53(12) 1926 –1956

© The Author(s) 2019

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DOI: 10.1177/0010414019843556

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Article

Protests and Voter

Defections in Electoral

Autocracies: Evidence

From Russia

Katerina Tertytchnaya1

Abstract

A large literature expects that as protests unfold in electoral autocracies,

voters who supported the ruling regime in the past will withdraw

support and shift to supporting its opponents. Yet there are only a few

empirical tests of how opposition protests influence voter defections

in these regimes. To gain empirical traction on this question, I draw

on evidence from Russia. Tying together evidence from a protest-event

dataset and a panel survey of voters conducted prior to and during the

2011-2012 protest wave, I examine how voters who supported the

ruling regime in the past respond to anti-regime mobilization. Results

reveal differentiation in defections. While opposition protests dampen

support for the ruling regime and depress engagement, they do not

necessarily translate into greater support for the regime’s challengers.

Findings, which have implications for debates on defection cascades in

autocracies, speak to the literatures on authoritarian endurance and the

legacies of (attempted) revolutions.

Keywords

voter defections, protests, public opinion, electoral autocracies, Russia

1University College London, UK

Corresponding Author:

Katerina Tertytchnaya, Department of Political Science, University College London,

29/31 Tavistock Square, London WC1H 9QU, UK.

Email: k.tertytchnaya@ucl.ac.uk

843556CPSXXX10.1177/0010414019843556Comparative Political StudiesTertytchnaya

research-article2019

Tertytchnaya 1927

Introduction

An influential literature recognizes the threat that opposition protests pose to

the stability of authoritarian rule. As far as the masses are concerned, existing

research expects that when opposition activists take to the streets popular

support for the ruling regime will erode (Hale & Colton, 2017; Hollyer, Peter

Rosendorff, & Vreeland, 2015; Kuran, 1997; Lohmann, 1994). However, few

studies provide empirical evidence of how unfolding anti-regime mobiliza-

tion influences voter defections in electoral autocracies. As detailed datasets

on how the electorate responds to opposition protests do not come easily for

non-democratic regimes, the microfoundations of voter defections remain

poorly understood (Hale & Colton, 2017, p. 323). In a similar vein, there are

only a few empirical tests of the hypothesis that voters who withdraw support

from the ruling regime as protests unfold will also shift to support for the

opposition. Regime defectors, for example, may withdraw from politics and

disengage from voting instead.

Understanding how protests affect voter defections in electoral autocra-

cies, regimes that combine authoritarian practices with multiparty elec-

tions, is of utmost importance. Protesters’ ability to win the support of

bystanders could increase participation in unfolding unrest (see, for exam-

ple, Aytaç, Shiumerini, & Stokes, 2018; DeNardo, 1985; Onuch, 2015) and

shift ruling elites toward the protesters’ preferences (McAdam & Su, 2002).

When protests demobilize a large share of the population instead, including

the bulk of regime supporters, the likelihood of political change declines.

As existing research reminds us, citizen disengagement from politics often

contributes to authoritarian resilience. Abstention from countrywide elec-

tions in Mexico, for example, helped the PRI to win elections and maintain

its dominant position (Domínguez & McCann, 1996, p. 164). The deliber-

ate disengagement of educated voters in Zimbabwe has also been found to

contribute to the authoritarian regime’s resilience (Croke, Grossman,

Larreguy, & Marshall, 2016).

Drawing on evidence from contemporary Russia, this article studies how

ruling regime supporters respond to anti-regime protests in electoral autoc-

racies. I propose that opposition protests provide information about the

regime and its opponents and change voters’ opportunities to infer whether

political change is likely or not (Lohmann, 1994; Magaloni, 2006;

Meirowitz & Tucker, 2013). In line with existing research, I suggest that

information about regime abuses and malpractices, made publicly available

as opposition protests unfold, can dampen support for the ruling regime.

Defections, however, could exhibit significant differentiation. I anticipate

that while, in response to protests, some voters may withdraw support from