Stock advice: a panel of pros compete in predicting whose picks will produce the most profit in the year to come.

• Author: Maley, Frank

Take a peek at Frank Black's picture on page 33. Note the stern look. The dark glasses. The prairie-flat line of his mouth cutting across his face. Pair his last name with "Tuesday," and you've got the worst day in Wall Street history. It all adds up to a storm cloud on the horizon, ready to flood your world with bad tidings.

Now look at Frank Jolley. The mischievous grin. The happy-sounding surname. Unshielded eyes able to discern the silver lining around every thunderhead. He's got sunshine on a cloudy day.

Appearances can deceive. Black is actually the one apt to look on the bright side. "I'm always enthusiastic about the market," he says. "I'm particularly enthusiastic about the market now." Listen to Jolley long enough, and it's hard not to think that his first name is more indicative of his demeanor than his last.

But those who listened to either of them last year when they picked their top stocks for 2005 for BUSINESS NORTH CAROLINA have good reason to see the world through Black's eyes. He, Jolley and three other pros each chose three stocks they thought would yield the best average total return in the 52-week period that ended Oct. 14. Black's mini-portfolio led the way with a 29.5% gain.

He picked Raleigh-based Closure Medical, which makes a liquid bandage and was bought eight months later by Johnson & Johnson for nearly double what it traded for at the start of the period. Closure proved more than a Band-Aid for Black--it was the cure for another pick. Greensboro-based RF Micro Devices bled his portfolio with a 17.7% price drop. Charlotte-based Duke Energy contributed a 12.8% return.

He hasn't soured on RF Micro, which specializes in power amplifiers and other products used in wireless communication. In fact, he picked it again for the year that started Oct. 28. After all, if at first you don't succeed, try, try again. He figures RF Micro will rebound sooner or later--it sold for about $5 on Oct. 28--and he thinks Wall Street often unfairly punishes good companies that report bad news. He likes to buy then and wait for the stock to cycle up--as long as he's confident the company isn't going out of business. "Based on everything I know, they're not going out of business. Well, at $5, what are my odds of making money? Pretty good."

He also likes Family Dollar Stores, the Matthews-based discount chain, which traded near its 52-week low at $21.51 on Oct. 28, and US LEC, a Charlotte-based phone company, which sold for just $1.94.

Jolley did almost as well as Black last year, posting a 21.8% overall return. None of his picks packed the punch of Closure, but they all wound up in the, um, black. Goodrich, a Charlotte-based maker of aerospace equipment, led the way with a 48.9% return. The rest of the panelists--Bobby Edgerton of Raleigh-based Capital Investment Counsel, Alex Miles of Charlotte-based WealthTrust Advisors and Doug Smith of Charlotte-based First Charter Investment Services--had a tough year. Edgerton, a former champion, finished with a 2.4% return. Miles barely broke even at 0.6%, and Smith's stocks fell 9.5%.

This year, Jolley likes Charlotte-based food-related stocks--Coca-Cola Bottling Company Consolidated, snack maker Lance and Ruddick, a thread maker and owner of the Harris Teeter grocery chain. They're defensive picks that pay dividends, aren't affected much by macroeconomic swings and, except for Lance, were trading well below their 52-week highs.

He thought about picking Family Dollar. "But I'm pretty negative on the consumer. I think the consumer is going to have a tougher time. There's too much retail square footage being added every year, and I think the consumer is going to be squeezed by the higher gas and heating bills this winter."

The economy has been boosted, he says, by high real-estate prices, easy credit and low interest rates. People have borrowed against their homes to support their lifestyles, and spending has grown faster than incomes. With higher oil prices and interest rates and real-estate markets slowing, he thinks American consumers will start...