PROMISES, PROMISES.

• Author: Mildenberg, David
• Position: UPFRONT

This year's Business North Carolina list of the state's biggest job-creating announcements continues a hot streak as some elite companies plan investments expected to create thousands of new jobs in coming years. Macy's, Toyota and Kroger alone are promising to spend a combined $3 billion on projects. Last year, Centene, Apple and Google said they would invest more than $2 billion.

It's a positive outlook tied to the state's commitment to reimburse millions of dollars of income tax if capital spending and job commitments come through. Otherwise, there's little reason for companies to make bold public promises.

Business North Carolina believes in truth in advertising, however, so this report requires a caveat: The world has changed in a hurry, and in a pretty nasty way, since these pledges were made.

No one expected that inflation would hit a 40-year high in May, that gas would reach $5 a gallon or that 30-year mortgage rates would double to more than 6% within a few months. Nor did many expect the Nasdaq's 100 stock index would lose 30% of its value in the first half of the year or that the S&P 500 Index would decline 20%.

Strong companies take a long-term view when making capital investments involving tens of millions of dollars, much less billions in the case of a few. But the ferocity of the economy's descent makes it likely that some best-laid plans will never come to fruition.

Even in robust times, many projects fall through. Since North Carolina unveiled its Job and Development Investment Grant program in 2003, 350 awards were announced, totalling more than $3 billion through June 30, 2021. Of that total, 67 projects were terminated or withdrawn without any funds disbursed.

Disbursements by the state totaled $421 million as of last June, leading to nearly 54,000 new jobs since the program's inception, according to the Commerce Department.

Fortunately, this month's magazine also includes details about university research activity, which leads to innovation that drives business expansion and economic success. North...