Taking it to the bridge: natural gas as an "alternative" fuel has producers and environmentalists holding hands, but skeptics abound--and coal and oil aren't ready to be left out in the cold.

• Author: Best, Allen
• Position: PLANET-PROFIT REPORT - Report

IF POLITICS MAKES FOR STRANGE BEDFELLOWS, CHECK OUT WHAT THE ELIXIR OF SURPRISINGLY ABUNDANT SUPPLIES OF NATURAL GAS HAS DONE. ENVIRONMENTAL ORGANIZATIONS AND NATURAL GAS DRILLERS HAVE GOTTEN ALMOST GOOEY-EYED WITH VISIONS OF GAS BACKING UP RENEWABLES AND DISPLACING COAL IN ELECTRICAL GENERATION. THROW IN T. BOONE PICKENS, WITH HIS CLAIM THAT NATURAL GAS CAN SECURE AMERICAN INDEPENDENCE FROM IMPORTED OIL, AND YOU HAVE QUITE THE MENAGE A TROIS.

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It's a tempting vision, this idea that natural gas can play a much larger role in the economy of Colorado and the nation. Estimates of proven reserves in unconventional deposits, including the tight sands of Colorado, have expanded rapidly in just the last three years. "It's almost divine intervention," one natural gas executive told The New York Times in 2008.

The Potential Gas Committee, a national consortium of geologists and producers headquartered at the Colorado School of Mines, last June announced a more clinical conclusion. The group's biennial assessment found 1,836 trillion cubic feet of "technically recoverable" gas in the United States, a 40 percent increase since 2000. This is the highest evaluation in the committee's 44-year history, says John B. Curtis, a professor of geology and geological engineering who directs data collection and analysis.

If that estimate is correct, the United States has 90 years of supply at current rates of consumption. Politicians from Denver to Washington, D.C., have taken note. "Natural gas has always been part of the New Energy Economy, and this year we look forward to solidifying its role for the future," said Colorado Gov. Bill Ritter at his state-of-the-state address in January. Ritter specifically cited the generation of electricity, but his energy office soon after announced that $1 million in grants would be available to create fueling stations in the Rifle area for compressed natural gas for vehicles.

But some geologists dispute these cheerful estimates of abundance. They warn that many wells tapping these unconventional deposits have played out rapidly. They contend that too much remains unknown to justify new state and national policies.

Dissenters include Vince Matthews, the Colorado state geologist. A former oilman, he worked for several major companies in a 30-plus-year career across the country, including Alaska, the Rocky Mountains and the Gulf of Mexico. He recalls many bumpy times. "I understand that what is supposed to be good isn't always as good as it looks," he says.

Matthews said he would love to see evidence that there's enough natural gas to displace coal-fired power plants and foreign oil. But he's skeptical.

"A lot of people want to prevent more nuclear power by using (natural gas)," he says. "And at least some of us want to heat our homes with it. More than 51 percent of our homes in this country are heated by natural gas--which is its best use, actually. I would love to have natural gas do all these things, but when I look at the data and the record of the industry, I don't see where we can do that."

Geologists for decades have known about the natural gas found in shales, tight sand and coal beds. But these were always higher-shell deposits, requiring far more work and expense to extract. Tapped first were the more economical deposits. Then came the offshore work, mostly in the Gulf of Mexico. Expenses were higher, but rewards again were great.

Now, new and advanced exploration, well drilling and completion technologies have allowed greater extraction of natural gas from the unconventional formations, Curtis from the School of Mines points out.

Matthews and other dubious geologists describe more meager returns per well, and hence more wells.

"In 1985, we drilled 8,900 wells in this country, and in 2007 we drilled 30,180 to get essentially the same amount of gas," Matthews says. "We have to drill more and more wells just to stay even."

And despite...