Will Americans vote outside the box? For more than 200 years, American Presidents have been, with one exception, white, male, and Protestant. In 2008, a number of presidential 'firsts' are possible.

• Author: Nagourney, Adam
• Position: Cover story

BACKGROUND

The old saying that "any boy can grow up to be President" was never true for women or minorities [and rarely for non-Protestants). But in 2008, there's a chance that a woman, a black, a Hispanic, or a Mormon could win the White House. To do so, candidates like Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton will have to overcome some hurdles.

The next President of the United States won't be inaugurated until January 2009, but the race is already well under way. Among those in the running: Senator Barack Obama of Illinois, whose father was from Kenya; Senator Hillary Clinton of New York, the wife of former President Bill Clinton and the first First Lady to be elected to public office; Mitt Romney, the former Governor of Massachusetts and a Mormon; and Governor Bill Richardson of New Mexico, whose mother is Mexican.

But the question remains: Are Americans ready to send a black man, a woman, a Hispanic, or a Mormon to the White House?

Women and minorities have made tremendous gains in winning public office. The new Congress includes 87 women (among them, the first female Speaker of the House, Nancy Pelosi of California). That compares with 25 in 1984, the year Representative Geraldine Ferraro, a Democrat from New York, became the first woman to run as a major-party vice-presidential candidate.

There are now 43 blacks, 30 Hispanics, and 16 Mormons in Congress (along with 43 Jews, and for the first time, a Muslim--Representative Keith Ellison, a Democrat from Minnesota). A Gallup poll in September showed a steady rise in the number of people who expect the nation to elect a woman or an African-American as President one day.

Times are indeed changing. But how much?

Over the past eight years, according to Democratic and Republican analysts, the country has shifted markedly on the issue of gender. Analysts say voters could very well be open to electing a woman in 2008. That is reflected, they say, in polls and in the continued success of women running for office, in red and blue states alike.

"The country is ready," says Elizabeth Dole of North Carolina, who ran for the Republican nomination for President in 2000. "I'm not saying it's going to happen in '08. But the country is ready."

For all the excitement stirred by Obama, it is less certain that an African-American could win a presidential election. Not as many blacks have been elected to prominent positions as women. And demographics might be a factor as well: Blacks are concentrated in about 25 states--typically blue ones, like New York and California. While black candidates cannot assume automatic support from black voters, they would at least provide a base. In states without large black populations, the candidate's "crossover appeal" would have to be substantial.

GOVERNORS AS A BAROMETER

"All evidence is that a white female has an advantage over a black male, for reasons of our cultural heritage," says the Reverend Jesse L. Jackson, the civil rights leader who ran for President in 1984 and 1988. Still, he says, for black and female candidates, "it's easier, emphatically so."

Geraldine Ferraro has a similar take. "I think it's more realistic for a woman than it is for an African-American," she says. "There is a certain amount of racism that exists in the United States. Whether it's conscious or not, it's true.

"Women are 51 percent of the population," she adds...