El presidente accidental.
Author | Warn, Ken |
Position | Ra |
Asuncion--Se espera que el presidente electo de Paraguay, Raúl Cubas Grau, ponga en práctica reformas encaminadas a revivir el crecimiento económico, que durante 15 años ha tenido dificultades para mantenerse al nivel del crecimiento de la población.
"No será fácil", dice un banquero extranjero en Asunción. "La participación del gobierno en la economía es abrumadora, de modo que muchas personas quieren mantener las cosas como están".
Sin embargo, Cubas, un empresario que fue ministro de Economía por un breve período en 1996, tiene una reputación de tecnócrata con poco en común con el ala tradicionalista y estatista del partido.
Una de sus primeras tareas será reducir el déficit fiscal, que ha crecido al 1,5% del PIB en medio de la parálisis del gobierno saliente de Juan Carlos Wasmosy.
Fuentes cercanas a Cubas dicen que quizá se acerque al FMI en busca de un programa para supervisar la economía. Pero no parece probable una reforma radical del sector estatal, como la privatización de los servicios telefónico y de electricidad.
Pero Cubas podría buscar soluciones menos radicales, como permitir la inversión de capital privado en la empresa estatal de telecomunicaciones, o abrir el sector a la competencia. La decrépita infraestructura de telecomunicaciones de Paraguay, y el alto nivel de demanda reprimida en el sector telefónico, se consideran un obstáculo para el desarrollo.
Cubas también podría intentar el fortalecimiento de la supervisión del sector bancario y racionalizar los bancos estatales. La falta de confianza en los bancos, tanto públicos como privados, debido a las repetidas crisis de liquidez y al fraude, han sido un regalo para los grupos extranjeros, encabezados por Citicorp, de EU. En el primer trimestre de este año, los bancos extranjeros adquirieron un 70% de los nuevos préstamos. Cubas también necesita urgentemente alentar la entrada de inversiones foráneas en las nuevas...
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