President's perspective.

• Author: P., Lawrence

Debate Continues on Future of Defense

(*) The budget impasse has been settled for the time being, so the question of the day is where things are headed for the defense enterprise.

The Defense Department's budget for the next three years is projected to remain essentially flat, with minor adjustments for inflation. The top line number is slightly less than $500 billion, and growing very gradually.

Barring any unforeseen crises or a major geopolitical event, it appears that military spending will be stable for the next three years. Budgets, however, are below what the Obama administrationhad requested in recent years for the Defense Department, approximately $25 billion to $30 billionless. The bipartisan budget deal gave the military some modest relief from the Budget Control Actcaps. Now the military services have a reasonable glide slope to a smaller force structure while sustaining better readiness and more stable investment profiles than under the strict sequester.

"If one looks at the combination of personnel and operations costs out to 2021, the concern is that all investment costs are crowded out. It is unavoidable that something, somewhere, has to give to create room for investment in research, development and procurement of equipment."

Every' service is contemplating reductions in personnel and force structure, with the Army perhaps facing the steepest cuts. The Air Force expects to make some reductions, and the Marine Corps already announced it would trim its force down considerably. No major force structure initiatives have been announced by the Navy, although the number of capital ships continues to decline slowly.There is a commitment, however, to build back to 303 capital ships eventually.

The 2014 Quadrennial Defense Review' might have something to say about Navy force structure. How this will be explained in light of the "pivot to the Pacific" strategy will enlighten all other approaches to force structure decisions.

The Air Force finds itself in the middle of a heated debate about its future. The National Commission on the Structure of the Air Force recently issued a set of recommendations that call for substantial realignment of the service. The commission's report clearly advocates for increased reliance on the Air National Guard and Reserve components. The call is for better use of talent, lowerpersonnel costs and preservation of funds for operations, maintenance, procurement and recapitalization.

The report avers that the...