President's half-trillion dollar jobs plan muddies the defense budget waters.

• Author: Farrell, Lawrence P., Jr.
• Position: President's Perspective

President Obama earlier this month presented his American Jobs Bill to a joint session of Congress and the nation. Although he referred to it as a bill, no such thing yet exists. The president outlined in general terms the provisions he would like to see in a jobs bill, if Congress agrees to take it up.

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Most of the proposals were not surprising--some revenue increases in the form of tax reforms (billionaires and millionaires were mentioned), education spending, and infrastructure investments in bridges, roads, schools and airports. He also took a stab at regulatory reform, tax credits and a continuation of existing payroll tax cuts, extension of unemployment insurance, and a mortgage refinancing plan of some sort. He warned against cuts to Medicare and Medicaid. Interestingly, he also announced that he would be releasing a more ambitious deficit reduction plan.

The one surprise of this estimated $447 billion jobs plan was that it "will be paid for." Presumably Congress will have to act to include an additional $447 billion of deficit reduction to the $1.5 trillion that the 12-member "super committee" must come up with by Nov. 23. Alternatively, one supposes, the super committee could come up with this amount without being legislated to do so.

The additional sum to "pay" for the jobs bill is another "brick" added to the already overloaded hog trough for discretionary spending, of which defense is fully half.

Just before the president's speech, the Senate Appropriations Committee put out guidance on defense spending for 2012. Recall that the 2011 continuing resolution gave $531 billion to the defense base budget. The $526 billion in the defense base budget for 2012 is in line with the 2012 amount in the Budget Control Act of 2011. So we see consistency developing here.

What one wonders though is how the new requirement to "pay for" the Jobs Bill will affect defense spending. Analysts have estimated that the defense budget base could settle in around $482 billion. Several experts agree with this estimate as a minimum level. McAleese and Associates calculates minimum cuts at $35 billion to $47 billion per year--agreeing roughly with the $482 billion above. But McAleese also estimates the worst-case scenario could be cuts of $85 billion to $104 billion per year, making the base budget come in around $430 billion per year.

It is worth noting that the vice chiefs of the military services in testimony to Congress have warned...