Preparing students and schools for a radically different future: ten trends will help determine education's role in the 21st century.

• Author: Marx, Gary
• Position: Education

WHILE MOST AMERICANS are busy dealing with critical issues du jour, massive trends are shaking the very foundations of society. The world is in motion, changing at dizzying speed. The status quo has become a ticket to obsolescence, and those organizations that spend most of their time defending it will find themselves out of the loop. People will simply go over, around, or through them. It is, after all, the age of the end run.

In fact, as we burst into a new millennium, the exciting task of constantly creating a future is one of the most important leadership challenges we face. Nowhere will these seismic shifts have greater impact than in our schools. Not only will educators at all levels be forced to function within this new environment, they will be expected to prepare students for a profoundly different future.

As schools and communities study each of the following 10 trends, they should ask: "What are its implications for how we run our schools, or universities for that matter, and what will our students need to know and be able to do?"

1 For the first time in history, the old will outnumber the young. In 2000, 27% of the U.S. population was 18 or under and 21% 55 or older. By 2020, 25% will be 18 or under and 30% 55 or older. In 1950, 16 people were working for every person drawing benefits from the Social Security System. By 2030, when the baby boomers are between 66 and 84 years of age, there will be about two people working for every beneficiary. This unprecedented shift raises concerns about issues ranging from the solvency of pension programs to competition for resources between those who are older and those who are younger.

The implications for schools are profound. Education systems will be challenged to deal with growing enrollments at a time when a substantial portion of the teaching force is on the verge of retirement. Demand for adult and continuing education programs will intensify, and some schools might even offer geriatric day care programs under their roofs. If the schools hope to maintain political support and get the resources they need, they will have to figure out how they will inform, involve, and serve older citizens even better.

2 The U.S. will become a nation of minorities. By 2050, according to the Census Bureau, the traditional white majority will drop from its current 71% to 53%. Students, no matter how multicultural or multiethnic their communities, will need to be ready to live and work in a highly diverse nation and world.

The diversity gap between teachers and administrators and their students is widening. In the early part of the 21st century, one education leader predicts, 41% of U.S. students will represent traditional minority groups, compared to five percent of teachers. An unprecedented trend of this magnitude raises huge questions with profound implications for schools. Will we be able to close the achievement gap among various groups? Are we truly committed as a culture to providing equal opportunity for all?

Currently, one-fourth of all Hispanics in the U.S. live in four counties. Will our nation and our communities become further divided as people find their comfort zone in enclaves, or will we have a gigantic diaspora? Schools need to continue to help diverse people find a high level of common ground. Among other things, this growing diversity will require an even more international focus. Unless we understand the people, histories, and cultures of the world, we may not...