Preparing Blacks and Latinx for Workforce 2000: Unfulfilled Promises and Lost Opportunities

• Author: Norma M. Riccucci
• DOI: 10.1177/0095399721997416
• Published date: 01 October 2021
• Date: 01 October 2021
• Subject Matter: Articles

https://doi.org/10.1177/0095399721997416

Administration & Society

2021, Vol. 53(9) 1362 –1389

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DOI: 10.1177/0095399721997416

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Article

Preparing Blacks and

Latinx for Workforce

2000: Unfulfilled

Promises and Lost

Opportunities

Norma M. Riccucci1

Abstract

In the mid-1980s, economists made predictions about what the workforce

would look like in the 21st century and the implications for employees and

employers. For example, it was predicted that due to demographic shifts in

the overall population, blacks and Latinx would represent a large share of

the new entrants into the workforce. The primary purpose of this article

is to examine whether the economic forecasts for workforce 2000 were

accurate. The findings of this study suggest economic forecasting was

inaccurate and that public and private sectors failed to prepare blacks and

Latinx for the modern economy.

Keywords

black employment, skills mismatch, perpetuating inequality

In the mid-1980s, demographers and economists began to make predictions

about what the workforce would look like in the 21st century and the impli-

cations of the forecasted changes for employees and employers. For exam-

ple, in 1987, Johnston and Packer, predicted in Workforce 2000: Work and

Workers for the Twenty-first Century, that due to demographic shifts in the

1Rutgers University, Newark, NJ, USA

Corresponding Author:

Norma Riccucci, Rutgers University, 111 Washington Street, CPS 337, Newark, NJ 07102, USA.

Email: riccucci@rutgers.edu

997416AASXXX10.1177/0095399721997416Administration & SocietyRiccucci

research-article2021

Riccucci 1363

overall population, the social makeup of the American workforce would

change in several important ways by the year 2000. They claimed inter alia

that (a) fewer young white males would enter the workforce, and (b) blacks

and Latinx would represent a large share of the new entrants into the work-

force.1 This and other policy analyses projected that the demographic

changes would result in blacks and Latinx, overall, holding a higher share

of jobs in the 21st century, with whites losing a fraction of the jobs.

Additional economic forecasts, based on the transition from a manufactur-

ing-based to service- and technology-based economy, included that there

would be a shift in the skills needed for the new jobs in the 21st century

(see, e.g., De Vita, 1989; Cantrell & Clark, 1982). Taken together, econo-

mists and demographers called on governments and private sector organi-

zations to develop policies and programs to prepare workers for these new

jobs. Educational and training opportunities would be needed to provide

blacks and Latinx with the necessary skills. But, have the predictions

regarding changes to the workforce and concomitant recommendations

been realized and achieved? Have investments been made in the human

capital of blacks and Latinx?

The primary purpose of this article is to examine whether the economic

forecasts for workforce 2000 were accurate. This inductive study finds that

they were not and that the public and private sectors failed to prepare blacks

in particular for the jobs of today. Government and private sector organiza-

tions were nudged to provide these workers with the tools and skills needed

for a changing workforce, characterized by increased automation, techno-

logical advances, and global competition. This issue is significant because

the lost opportunity created a skills mismatch and skills deficit for workers of

color, which has led to racial gaps in workers’ occupations and concomitantly

wages. This has implications for diversifying the workplace (Harris, 2013;

Sabharwal, 2014; Sowa & Selden, 2003), but more significantly, it perpetu-

ates wage inequalities between whites and blacks and Latinx, which will be

addressed in the final section.

Assessing the Accuracy of Predictions for the

21st Century Workforce

Economic forecasts for jobs of 2020 were made in a number of areas, includ-

ing new entrants to the workforce, changes in employment status and occu-

pational classifications based on race, ethnicity, and gender and increased job

opportunities for women and persons of color in technology. Each is addressed

below in terms of whether the predictions have been realized.