Prepare for medical bills beyond belief.

• Position: Health Care Costs

The health care plan approved by the Senate Finance Committee is supposed to reduce budget deficits over 10 years by $81,000,000,000, according to the Congressional Budget Office. Similarly, the House version of health legislation supposedly would reduce 10-year deficits by $104,000,000,000. Supporters thus argue that the plans are fiscally responsible. However, enacting a one trillion dollar entitlement program greatly will increase the burden of government spending, contends Daniel J. Mitchell, senior fellow at the Cato Institute, Washington, D.C., in the think tank's Tax & Budget Bulletin. In addition, Mitchell asserts, promises of lower deficits are a triumph of hope over experience. Government forecasters have a very poor track record of predicting costs. More realistic assumptions suggest that health legislation will push up 10-year deficits by $600,000,000,000.

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Government-run health care will cost more than the politicians are telling us, Mitchell emphasizes. The tax increases will not collect as much money as expected and, to put it mildly, promises of future spending restraint are naive. The following are some of the reasons Mitchell puts forth as to why these health proposals--which are being melded into a single piece of legislation--will mean not just more spending and higher taxes, but larger deficits and added debt:

* The Senate plan would increase spending by nearly $900,000,000,000, while the House plan would increase it by more than 1.2 billion dollars. These CBO estimates are far too low because they do not measure properly how people and businesses change their behavior in response to government handouts.

* Errors in forecasts by the Congressional Budget Office and Joint Committee on Taxation could have large fiscal implications. If revenues and offsets are 25% below the forecast and spending is 50% higher than estimated, the 10-year deficits will be $602,000,000,000 to $860,000,000,000 higher.

* There are incentives for companies to dump their health plans since workers then will get more take-home pay and be able to obtain health insurance using subsidies and handouts from the government. This will increase budgetary costs dramatically.

* The spending estimates are way off because they do not recognize that politicians in the future will be tempted to expand subsidies as part of routine vote-buying behavior, similar to what happened with Medicare and Medicaid.

* Future savings in the Senate plan...