A Preliminary Step towards Evaluating the Impact of Megan's Law: A Trend Analysis of Sexual Offenses in New Jersey from 1985 to 2005
| Author | Bonita M. Veysey,Melissa Dalessandro,Kristen Zgoba |
| Published date | 01 December 2008 |
| DOI | 10.3818/JRP.10.2.2008.1 |
| Date | 01 December 2008 |
| Subject Matter | Article |
*
APreliminarySteptowardsEvaluatingtheImpact
ofMegan’sLaw:ATrendAnalysisofSexualOffenses
inNewJerseyfrom1985to2005
Bonita M. Veysey
Rutgers University
School of Criminal Justice
Kristen Zgoba
New Jersey Department of Corrections
Research & Evaluation Unit
Melissa Dalessandro
Rutgers University
* Abstract
This study examines the trend of sexual offense rates reported by law enforcement
agencies in the 21 counties of New Jersey from 1985 through 2005. New Jersey was
chosen because it was the birthplace of Megan’s Law. This study is one component of a
larger National Institute of Justice-funded study designed to evaluate the effectiveness
of Megan’s Law. In this preliminary step we attempt to fill in missing information
concerning the pattern of sexual offense rates in New Jersey, while comparing them to
drug offense rates and non-sexually based offending rates over the 21-year time frame.
This study focuses on four questions: (1) What is the pattern of sexual offense rates in
New Jersey for the 10 years prior to the passage of Megan’s Law and the 10 years after?
(2) How do these rates compare to the rates of drug offenses and non-sexually based
offending in New Jersey for the same period? (3) Are there pattern differences across
the 21 New Jersey counties? (4) Are there significant change points in the pattern of
sexual offense rates at the state or county level that coincide with the implementation of
Megan’s Law? Results indicate that New Jersey experienced a consistently downward
trend in sexual offense rates, with a significant change point in 1994. In the majority
of counties, sexual offense rates were higher prior to 1994 (the year Megan’s Law
was passed) and were lowest after 1995. While sexual offense rates have rebounded
somewhat, they are far lower than in the 1980s and early 1990s.
This project was supported by Award Number 2006-IJ-CX-0018 awarded by the National
Institute of Justice, Office of Justice Programs, U.S. Department of Justice. The opinions,
findings and conclusions or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the
authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Department of Justice.
JUSTICE RESEARCH AND POLICY, Vol. 10, No. 2, 2008
© 2008 Justice Research and Statistics Association
On July 29, 1994, Jesse Timmendequas, a sex offender who had been released
after serving a maximum sentence in a New Jersey correctional facility, raped and
murdered seven-year-old Megan Kanka in Hamilton, New Jersey. The intense
community reaction that followed extended well beyond the state. One expression
of community outrage was the enactment of laws to notify the public of the
presence of sex offenders living and working in their community. The premise was,
and still is, that with this knowledge, citizens will take protective measures against
these nearby sex offenders. As Beck, Clingermayer, Ramsey, and Travis (2004,
p. 142) note, “Exactly what action is expected is not clear, but it is hoped that,
armed with this critical information, citizens will work on their own or in concert
with government to make their neighborhoods safer.”
During the following decade, all 50 states enacted some version of such
community registration and notification laws, collectively referred to as “Megan’s
Laws.” Although a few states, such as Washington, had enacted a community
notification law prior to 1994, the federalization of community notification laws
in 1996 created strong incentives for other states to enact these laws (Presser &
Gunnison, 1999). Consequently, most Megan’s Laws were enacted after that time.
Presently, all 50 states and the District of Columbia have community notification
and registration laws, as well as some countries abroad (Zevitz & Farkas, 2000).
The legislation known as Megan’s Law includes both registration and
notification. Sex offenders must register their address with local police jurisdictions
within a specified time following release from prison. Through the registration
process, the public is then notified of the offender’s presence in the neighborhood.
The goal of notification is to inform both the public and past victims so that they
can protect themselves accordingly. In New Jersey, offenders are placed into one of
three tiers, representing a hierarchy of potential risk of reoffense. A risk assessment
instrument is used to predict the offender’s likelihood of reoffense, which ultimately
determines placement into the tier. Tier one represents the lowest risk and requires
only notification of law enforcement officials and the victims. Offenders are
considered low risk and eligible for a tier-one placement if they received a low
risk assessment score and are on probation/parole, receiving therapy, employed,
and free of alcohol and drugs. A tier-two classification represents a moderate risk
of reoffense. It requires notification of organizations, educational institutions, day
care centers, and summer camps. The factors for placement into a tier-two category
include a moderate to high risk assessment score, failure to comply with supervision,
lack of employment, abuse of drugs or alcohol, denial of offenses, lack of remorse,
history of loitering or stalking children, and making threats (Brooks, 1996; Matson
& Lieb, 1997). Tier-three offenders are those who are predicted to be most at risk
for reoffending. This category has generated the most legal resistance because it calls
for the broadest level of notification. The entire community that may encounter the
offender is notified through posters and pamphlets. The factors necessary for tier-
three placement are a high probability of reoffending evidenced by a particularly
heinous instant offense or a high-risk assessment score, repetitive and compulsive
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