Son preference and the demographic transition

• Published date: 01 February 2022
• Author: Anna‐Maria Aksan
• Date: 01 February 2022
• DOI: http://doi.org/10.1111/rode.12831

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wileyonlinelibrary.com/journal/rode Rev Dev Econ. 2022;26:32–56.

© 2021 John Wiley & Sons Ltd

Received: 10 June 2021 

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Revised: 26 August 2021 

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Accepted: 31 August 2021

DOI: 10.1111/rode.12831

REGULAR ARTICLE

Son preference and the demographic transition

Anna- MariaAksan

Department of Economics, DMH 326, 

Fairfield University, Fairfield, CT, USA

Correspondence

Anna- Maria Aksan, Department 

of Economics, DMH 326, Fairfield 

University, 1073 North Benson Road, 

Fairfield, CT 06824- 5195, USA.

Email: aaksan@fairfield.edu

Abstract

In a general equilibrium model of fertility with higher 

economic returns to sons relative to daughters, parents 

choose overall fertility and the gender composition of 

their children. Son preference is partially endogenized to 

reflect how relative scarcity of females raises their value 

even while social norms and lack of economic opportu-

nities lessen their value. These competing factors lead to 

an oscillating sex ratio. Model simulations demonstrate 

that son preference increases fertility, but that sex selec-

tion reduces fertility in the presence of son preference. 

The results suggest that effectively banning sex- selective 

abortions in places such as India, which has struggled 

to enforce its existing ban on the practice, is insufficient 

and may have unintended consequences such as slow-

ing fertility decline, reducing quality investment in girls, 

and slowing human capital accumulation and economic 

growth. Improving economic opportunities for women 

will increase the value placed on daughters, thereby im-

proving the sex ratio and human capital investment in 

all children.

KEYWORDS

demographic transition, sex selection, son preference, quantity– 

quality tradeoff

JEL CLASSIFICATION

J11; J13; J16

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AKSAN

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INTRODUCTION

Since 1980 India’s child mortality rate (CMR) fell by 71%, from 166 deaths per 1,000 live births to 

47.7 in 2015, while the total fertility rate (TFR) declined from 4.8 to 2.4 children per woman. In 

China the CMR fell by 82%, from 61 deaths per 1,000 live births to 10.7 in 2015, while the TFR 

declined from 2.6 to 1.6 (World Development Indicators, 2017). Yet this apparent progress is ob-

scured by a severe sex ratio imbalance in both countries. The most recent Indian census data of

2011 indicate that the current sex ratio at birth (SRB) was 1.12 males per female, up from 1.10 in 

2001, and has been estimated to be as high as 1.3– 1.5 in some regions of the country (Guilmoto, 

2009; Rajan et al., 2017). In China the SRB rose from 1.09 in 1982 to 1.18 in 2012 (UNICEF, 

2017). These imbalances are in large part attributed to the technologically aided sex- selective 

termination of pregnancies, even though the practice has been outlawed in both countries. We 

examine theoretically the potential consequences for the well- being of both boys and girls, the 

demographic transition, and economic growth.

A preference for sons arises from economic considerations and cultural norms (Mayer, 1999). 

Stronger patrilocal and patrilineal traditions coincide with a higher sex ratio in parts of Asia, the 

Middle East and North Africa (Basu, 1999; Jayachandran, 2015). In the absence of social security 

programs and an efficient financial system by which to save for old age, parents rely on their 

children to care for them. In India, China, and South Korea traditionally the son supports his 

parents when they age, inherits the property, and continues the family line (Chung & Das Gupta, 

2007; Jayachandran, 2015). Hindu and Confucian traditions emphasize the son’s imperative role 

in caring for his parents in old age and in their afterlife (Bhaskar, 2011; Chung & Das Gupta, 

2007; Jayachandran, 2015). In contrast, raising a daughter is considered akin to “watering your 

neighbor’s garden" since she eventually moves in with her husband’s family and cares for his 

parents (Arnold et al., 1998; Guilmoto, 2009). Moreover, dowries in South Asia have increased in 

real value over time and are a financial burden on the daughter’s family (Basu, 1999).

The practice of sex- selective abortion magnifies the demographic effects of more traditional 

methods of gender control, specifically stopping behavior whereby parents have children until 

the desired number of sons is born, and even infanticide or neglect of newborn daughters 

(Bongaarts, 2013). Rapid increases in the SRB have followed geographical patterns of ultrasound 

technology diffusion, particularly throughout the 1980s in India, South Korea, and China. While 

South Korea’s sex ratio has returned to normal since its peak of 1.15 in the early 1990s, India 

remains less economically developed and its SRB continues to worsen (Guilmoto, 2009; Rajan 

et al., 2017). As India modernizes and its demographic transition proceeds, in many regions par-

ents prefer to have fewer children, potentially intensifying the sex ratio imbalance (Das Gupta & 

Bhat, 1997; Dharmalingam et al., 2014; Guilmoto, 2009). Parents can effectively choose to have 

more sons and fewer daughters. China’s experience has been similar, although some of its fertil-

ity decline can be attributed to state- mandated restrictions on family size via the so- called “one- 

child policy.” Falling fertility combined with son preference led to rapid increases in SRBs during 

the 1990s in the South Caucasus, reaching 1.17 in Azerbaijan in 2002, 1.19 in Georgia in 1998, 

and 1.16 in Armenia in 2001 (Guilmoto, 2009).

Theoretically, falling desired fertility could improve sex ratios if the ideal number of sons 

declines more quickly than desired fertility (Das Gupta & Bhat, 1997). For example, Hindus con-

sider it sacramental to give away one daughter in marriage, while sons, on the other hand, are 

perceived as productive assets (Bhat & Zavier, 2003). Thus as ideal family size declines, the ideal 

number of daughters changes little, while the ideal number of sons changes more. Bongaarts 

(2013) illustrates a positive relationship between desired fertility and son preference (i.e. desired