Predictive Validity of the Static-99R in Romania

• Author: Roxana Andreea Toma,Silvia Kube,Liliana Hurezan,Rainer Banse
• DOI: http://doi.org/10.1177/00938548221107875
• Published date: 01 September 2022
• Date: 01 September 2022
• Subject Matter: Articles

CRIMINAL JUSTICE AND BEHAVIOR, 2022, Vol. 49, No. 9, September 2022, 1276 –1294.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1177/00938548221107875

Article reuse guidelines: sagepub.com/journals-permissions

© 2022 International Association for Correctional and Forensic Psychology

1276

PREDICTIVE VALIDITY OF THE STATIC-99R

IN ROMANIA

ROXANA ANDREEA TOMA

West University of Timi

ș

oara

SILVIA KUBE

University of Bonn

LILIANA HUREZAN

Penitentiary of Arad

RAINER BANSE

University of Bonn

Empirical actuarial measures are significantly more accurate than unstructured clinical judgments in predicting recidivism

risk of incarcerated populations across different cultures. In a retrospective study, we examined the predictive validity of the

Static-99R, the actuarial measure most used around the world for assessing the recidivism risk of persons who committed a

sexual offense (PCS), in a sample of 518 male PCS in Romania. The results showed a good predictive validity for any kind

of recidivism (area under the curve [AUC] = .70) and a slightly lower predictive accuracy for violent (AUC = .69) and

sexual recidivism (AUC = .67). Effect sizes and the predictive validity of the single items of the Static-99R have also been

examined. In addition, the predicted rates of reconviction have been compared with the observed rates. The Romanian version

of the Static-99R has been shown as a valid, useful tool to predict sexual, violent, and general recidivism for Romanian PCS.

Keywords: Static-99R; predictive validity; recidivism; person who committed a sexual offense; risk assessment

Accurate risk assessment of persons who committed a sexual offense (PCS) is widely

recognized as important for decisions about treatment assignment or early release on

parole. Although an international use of the same risk assessment instruments is desirable,

studies have shown that cultural or national differences related to ethnicity and the specific

legal system need to be taken into consideration (Haag et al., 2016; Phenix, Fernandez

et al., 2016; Shepherd & Lewis-Fernandez, 2016). It is not sufficient to demonstrate empiri-

cal evidence for the predictive accuracy of risk factors only in Western forensic populations.

The implementation and validation of risk assessment instruments in different cultural and

ethnic groups still need more attention (Babchishin et al., 2012; Haag et al., 2016; Långström,

2004; Tsao & Chu, 2021). In Romania, at present, there is no routine use of established

psychometric measures for the assessment of recidivism risk for PCS. Romanian language

versions of actuarial risk assessment instruments that are based on objective person data

AUTHORS’ NOTE: We have no conflicts of interests to disclose. Correspondence concerning this article

should be addressed to Roxana Andreea Toma, Faculty of Psychology, West University of Timi

ș

oara, Blvd. V.

Pârvan Bd.4, Timi

ș

oara 300223, Timi

ș

, Romania; e-mail: roxana.toma@e-uvt.ro.

1107875CJBXXX10.1177/00938548221107875Criminal Justice and BehaviorToma et al. / Validity of the static-99r in romania

research-article2022

Toma et al. / VALIDITY OF THE STATIC-99R IN ROMANIA 1277

(e.g., age, the onset of criminal behavior, the number of offenses), or measures of sexual

deviance such as sexual sadism (Larue et al., 2014; Mokros et al., 2012), or pedophilic

sexual interest (Banse et al., 2010) do not yet exist and hence cannot be used.

Instead, it is common practice to base risk assessments on a screening of the history of

psychological disorders and mental health, and to use clinical judgment to estimate the

general functioning of mental mechanisms such as perception, cognition, memory, motiva-

tion, emotion, and will. In the light of the advantages of empirically validated measures

(Kamorowski et al., 2022), various forensic procedures would benefit from access to trans-

lated and validated assessment instruments to improve PCS management, treatment, and

rehabilitation in the Romanian prison system.

THE ROMANIAN PENAL SYSTEM

Romania is an Eastern European country with access to the Black Sea and a population

of 19.2 million inhabitants in 2020 (Worldometer, 2022). After the fall of the communist

regime in 1989, Romania engaged in a process of modernization and adjustment of its insti-

tutions toward the standards of Western European countries. This process accelerated after

2007 when Romania joined the European Union. The Romanian penal system was histori-

cally rooted in similar principles (e.g., a very large prison population, harsh sentences), as

other formerly communist countries attached to the USSR. Since 1989, the penal system in

Romania has also evolved and moved toward the principles of humanism and human rights.

For example, between 2009 and 2014, the criminal code related to sexual offenses was

adapted to the more liberal Western European standards of sentencing. Major changes of the

new criminal code include a substantial reduction of the maximal sentences for sexual

offenses, which had previously been extremely severe, and a much more detailed and

explicit formulation of hands-off sexual offenses. Several more specific sexual offenses

against children have been introduced to the criminal code in Romania, such as recruiting

minors for sexual purposes (art. 222 Noul Cod Penal [NCP]), or the use and distribution of

child pornography (art. 374 NCP). Regarding sexual offenses against adults, the misuse of

an authority position for sexual purposes was introduced as a new offense (art. 299 NCP)

and the formerly vague offense of “outrage against good manners” was specified as behav-

iors such as exhibitionism or distribution of adult sexual images without authorization (art.

375 NCP).

The penitentiary system in Romania comprises 34 penitentiaries with maximal, high-,

and medium-security prisons with closed, semi-open, and open regimes; six hospital peni-

tentiaries; two educational centers; and two detention centers (The National Administration

of Penitentiaries, 2021). The prison population has decreased by 25% over the last decade,

totaling 21,753 in 2020 (World Prison Brief, 2022). There are two main categories of sen-

tences that are related to sexual offenses that can potentially be managed in the community

under the supervision of the Probation Service. These are the sentences with suspension

(mainly for hands off offenses) and the release on parole for the last 2 years of a prison term.

The current incarceration rate of 120 per 100,000 inhabitants is only slightly higher than in

Germany, France, or Canada, but lower than in England and Wales, and five times lower

than in the United States according to the World Prison Brief (2022).

Criminogenic data gathered from police reports (Eurostat Database, 2022), related to

sexual offenses (rape and sexual violence) per 100,000 inhabitants per year, show a