Predictive Validity of the HCR-20V3 With Incarcerated Males in Mexico City

Published date01 October 2021
DOI10.1177/0093854821997520
Date01 October 2021
Subject MatterArticles
CRIMINAL JUSTICE AND BEHAVIOR, 2021, Vol. 48, No. 10, October 2021, 1450 –1467.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1177/0093854821997520
Article reuse guidelines: sagepub.com/journals-permissions
© 2021 International Association for Correctional and Forensic Psychology
1450
PREDICTIVE VALIDITY OF THE HCR-20V3 WITH
INCARCERATED MALES IN MEXICO CITY
ALICIA NIJDAM-JONES
Fordham University
ERIC GARCÍA-LÓPEZ
Instituto Nacional de Ciencias Penales
LIBERTAD MERCHAN-ROJAS
Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México
AURA RUIZ GUARNEROS
Instituto Nacional de Ciencias Penales
BARRY ROSENFELD
Fordham University
This prospective study investigated the predictive validity of the Historical-Clinical-Risk Management–20, Version 3 (HCR-
20V3) in a sample of incarcerated males in a Mexico City prison. Data were collected from 114 male adults incarcerated in a
medium-security prison in Mexico City. Participants were an average of 36.86 years old (SD = 9.93 years) and were all born
in Mexico. Data collection for HCR-20V3 ratings involved clinical interviews and a review of institutional documents.
Aggressive incidents for a 3-month period following each completed risk assessment were collected through document
review, self-report follow-up interviews, and guard reports. Participants who engaged in institutional violence during the
3-month follow-up period were given significantly higher summary risk ratings and had higher HCR-20 total scores than the
participants who did not engage in violence (area under the curve [AUC] ranged from .71 to .77). The study demonstrated
support for the cross-cultural utility of the HCR-20V3 for institutional violence in a Mexican prison.
Keywords: violence risk assessment; forensic assessment; prison; cross-cultural validity
With more than 200,000 incarcerated adults, Mexico has the second-largest prison
population in Latin America, following only Brazil (Walmsley, 2018).
Unfortunately, Mexican prisons have a history of struggling with human rights issues
(Comisión Nacional de los Derechos Humanos, 2019a), especially related to overcrowd-
ing; prisoner mistreatment; crumbling building infrastructures; poor medical, education,
AUTHORS’ NOTE: This article is based on Alicia Nijdam-Jones’ dissertation research, for which Barry
Rosenfeld served as the research adviser. A portion of these data were presented at the American Psychology–Law
Society Conference, March 2020, New Orleans, LA. This work was supported in part by a generous dissertation
grant from the American Academy of Forensic Psychology and Fordham University’s Graduate School of Arts and
Sciences Research Fellowship. We would also like to express our gratitude to the participants and staff of the
Mexico City Penitentiary System, whose support and involvement were essential to the success of this project.
Correspondence concerning this article should be addressed to Alicia Nijdam-Jones, Department of Psychology,
Fordham University, 441 East Fordham Road, Bronx, NY 10458; e-mail: anijdamjones@fordham.edu.
997520CJBXXX10.1177/0093854821997520Criminal Justice and BehaviorNijdam-Jones et al. / Short Title
research-article2021
Nijdam-Jones et al. / PREDICTIVE VALIDITY OF THE HCR-20 IN MEXICO 1451
and rehabilitation services; administrative corruption; and violence and riots (Comisión
Nacional de los Derechos Humanos, 2019b; Gómez Pérez, 2017; Instituto Nacional de
Estadística y Geografía, 2017; Sánchez Galindo, 2011). For instance, a 2016 study of
64,150 individuals incarcerated across Mexico showed that the fear of violence within
Mexican prisons is a serious concern, as 19% of the respondents reported feeling inse-
cure or unsafe within their cells and 32% reported feeling unsafe in the prison environ-
ment (Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Geografía, 2017). One third of respondents
also reported being victims of illegal conduct, and of this group, 89% had been robbed,
25% were physically injured by others, and 18% had received violent threats (Instituto
Nacional de Estadística y Geografía, 2017).
The prevalence of institutional violence in Mexican prisons is high. Institutional violence
refers to any actual, attempted, or threatened physical harm of another person, including
intimidating or fear-inducing behavior, but excluding simple property damage or self-harm
(Webster et al., 1997) within an institutional setting, such as a prison or psychiatric hospital.
In one study, researchers found 108 homicides, 1,043 fights, and 11 riots recorded in state
and federal prisons throughout Mexico in 2017 (Comisión Nacional de los Derechos
Humanos, 2017). Institutional violence in Mexico, including assaults or fights between
individuals in custody or against staff, may cause physical and psychological harm (Albertie
et al., 2017) in a setting intended for rehabilitation. Accurately identifying those at risk of
institutional violence is crucial, as violence risk assessment can inform supervision levels
and treatment recommendations, reduce risk of injury to staff and individuals in custody, as
well as decrease costs by identifying lower risk individuals not in need of intensive inter-
ventions. Given the high rate of violence in the Mexican criminal justice setting, there is
need for violence risk assessment measures for this population.
One of the most frequently used and researched tools for evaluating violence risk is the
Historical-Clinical-Risk Management–20 (HCR-20, Webster et al., 1997), currently in its
third edition (Historical-Clinical-Risk Management–20, Version 3 [HCR-20V3]; Douglas
et al., 2013). Due to extensive research demonstrating its validity in predicting community
and institutional violence (O’Shea et al., 2013; Singh et al., 2011), this tool is often used
internationally to inform forensic evaluations in both institutional settings and the commu-
nity. Developed in Canada, the HCR-20 aids in the assessment of violence risk in psychiat-
ric patients and individuals involved with the criminal justice system. The HCR-20 guides
the clinician to consider 20 risk factors, including historical risk factors, the individual’s
current clinical presentation, and possible future problems that may increase the individu-
al’s violence risk. The HCR-20 is used to aid clinicians in making categorical risk judg-
ments of low, moderate, or high, across several possible outcomes (i.e., risk of severe
violence, imminent violence, and overall “case prioritization”), based on an integration of
the identified risk factors. Research on the tool’s predictive validity has relied on both a
numerical total score (summing the risk factors identified as present) and/or the summary
risk ratings (SRRs; described in more detail below).
The HCR-20 has been investigated in more than 240 studies in more than 25 countries
(Douglas et al., 2014), typically generating moderate to large effect sizes for predicting
violence (O’Shea et al., 2013). For example, the area under the curve (AUC) generated by
receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis has averaged between .70 and .71
(interquartile range = .64–.76; Campbell et al., 2009; Singh et al., 2011; Yang et al., 2010).
In correctional settings, the HCR-20 has demonstrated fair to excellent predictive accuracy

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