Predictive Properties of a General Risk-Need Measure in Diverse Justice Involved Youth: A Prospective Field Validity Study

• DOI: 10.1177/00938548211004669
• Author: Jessica Prince,Keira C. Stockdale,Mark E. Olver,Kristine Lovatt
• Date: 01 November 2021
• Published date: 01 November 2021
• Subject Matter: Articles

CRIMINAL JUSTICE AND BEHAVIOR, 2021, Vol. 48, No. 11, November 2021, 1511 –1535.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1177/00938548211004669

Article reuse guidelines: sagepub.com/journals-permissions

© 2021 International Association for Correctional and Forensic Psychology

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PREDICTIVE PROPERTIES OF A GENERAL

RISK-NEED MEASURE IN DIVERSE

JUSTICE INVOLVED YOUTH

A Prospective Field Validity Study

JESSICA PRINCE

University of Saskatchewan

KRISTINE LOVATT

Saskatchewan Health Authority

KEIRA C. STOCKDALE

Saskatoon Police Service and University of Saskatchewan

MARK E. OLVER

University of Saskatchewan

The current investigation was a prospective field validity study examining the discrimination and calibration properties of a

general risk-need tool (Level of Service Inventory–Saskatchewan Youth Edition [LSI-Sk]) in a diverse sample of 284 court

adjudicated youths, rated by their youth workers on the measure and followed up an average of 9.3 years. The overall risk

level and need total demonstrated moderate predictive accuracy for general, violent, and nonviolent recidivism in the aggre-

gate sample, although area under the curve (AUC) magnitudes fluctuated among gender and Indigenous ethnocultural sub-

groups. Variability in AUC values for the measure’s eight criminogenic need domains further reflected greater salience of

certain needs among subgroups. Finally, clinician rated level of gang involvement incrementally predicted recidivism to

varying degrees after controlling for overall risk and need. Implications for responsible use of risk assessment tools as part

of individualized and gender/ethnoculturally responsive risk assessment practices with youth are discussed.

Keywords: Level of Service Inventory; risk assessment; youth; gender; Indigenous; gang

Risk and need assessment with justice involved youth serves important functions, such

as evaluating recidivism risk to inform the intensity, priority, and foci of services to

help prevent future justice system contacts. In Canada, the youth crime rate has declined

over the last decade, with some noteworthy exceptions. In some provincial and territorial

jurisdictions, such as Saskatchewan, youth crime has remained relatively consistent at more

AUTHORS’ NOTE: This manuscript is based on the undergraduate thesis of Jessica Prince supervised by Mark

Olver. Correspondence concerning this article should be addressed to Mark E. Olver, Department of Psychology

and Health Studies, University of Saskatchewan, 9 Campus Drive, Arts 154, Saskatoon, Saskatchewan, Canada

S7N 5A2; e-mail: mark.olver@usask.ca.

1004669CJBXXX10.1177/00938548211004669Criminal Justice and BehaviorPrince et al. / LSI-SK AND DIVERSITY IN YOUTH

research-article2021

1512 CRIMINAL JUSTICE AND BEHAVIOR

than double the Canadian average (Department of Justice Canada, 2016). Provinces such as

Saskatchewan also have a particularly large overrepresentation of Indigenous youth

involved in the justice system, a problem that is further compounded by the proportion of

youth involved in street gangs (Tanasichuk et al., 2010). Across jurisdictions, however,

there has been debate about the use of structured risk-need assessment measures with

diverse justice involved youth (e.g., Indigenous peoples, females), and there has been even

less formal structured evaluation of risk and need among gang involved youth. As such, this

study endeavors to examine issues of sociocultural diversity (i.e., Indigenous ancestry, gen-

der, and gang involvement) in the predictive properties of a general risk-need assessment

tool on a sample of court adjudicated youth.

Although Indigenous persons, which include First Nations, Métis, and Inuit peoples,

comprise less than 10% of the general Canadian population, they are overrepresented by

approximately eightfold to tenfold in youth and adult corrections (Malakieh, 2018).

Indigenous persons also tend to score higher on conventional risk measures, they are

more frequently classified as high-risk, and they have higher rates of recidivism and

returns to custody (Rugge, 2006). Arguments have been advanced that the item content of

risk instruments capture variables that tend to be overrepresented among Indigenous per-

sons owing to their social, historical, and contextual circumstances (e.g., racism, abuse,

poverty), contributing to higher scores and poorer reintegration prognoses (Clark, 2019).

The applicability of risk instruments for females has also been questioned. Ongoing

discussions and debates have frequently included two poles referred to as gender neutral

versus gender specific with extant research arguably demonstrating a gender responsive

middle ground (Olver & Stockdale, 2021). Thus, the use of conventional risk assessment

tools with female youth and those of diverse ethnocultural backgrounds has been the

focus of much discussion. Although such debates have captured both assessment and

intervention approaches, this brief review focuses on risk assessment given the focus of

the present study.

LEVEL OF SERVICE MEASURES

The Level of Service (LS) measures refer to a collection of general risk-need tools devel-

oped for justice involved youth and adults, male and female. More than a dozen variants of

the LS measures exist, a common thread being that the item content can be grouped around

a collection of risk and need domains that Andrews and Bonta (2010) have termed the

Central Eight: Offense History, Employment/Education, Family/Marital, Antisocial Peers,

Drug/Alcohol Problems, Leisure/Recreation, Antisocial Attitudes, and Antisocial Pattern.

The family of LS measures are the most frequently used risk instruments, with more than

one million administrations annually worldwide (Luong & Wormith, 2011). These mea-

sures are designed to apply the risk-need-responsivity principles (Andrews & Bonta, 2010)

by identifying the individual’s level of risk and profile of criminogenic needs to inform

intervention, case management, and community supervision (Olver et al., 2014).

The first youth variant emerged in the form of the Youth Level of Service Inventory

(YLSI; Andrews et al., 1984), and several others would follow including the Young Offender-

Levels of Service Inventory (Shields & Simourd, 1991), and the most widely used, Youth

Level Service/Case Management Inventory (YLS/CMI; Hoge & Andrews, 2003) along with

its Screening Version (YLS/CMI-SV; Hoge & Andrews, 2001). Jurisdiction-specific variants