Predictions for the Bilateral Relationship.

• Position: The United States and Canada: Outlook For Bilateral Relations in 2021

Moderator: Diane Francis

Speakers: Lauren Gardner & Alexander Panetta

DR. SANDS: It's now my pleasure to introduce our first panel. And the moderator of that panel is a dear friend and a wonderful person, Diane Francis. Diane is a member of the Canada-U.S. Law Institute Executive [Committee], but she's also and award-winning journalist, a best-selling author, has worked as an investigative journalist, she was editor of Canada's Financial Post, writes a regular column for the National Post. And because this next panel includes journalists, I could think of no better journalist wrangler than Diane. And so, over to you, Diane, for the first panel.

MS. DIANE FRANCIS: Okay, thanks a lot, Chris. And Ambassador Hillman, that was a very sweeping and informative statement. I appreciate it, I got quite a bit out of it.

I'm going to now introduce, and talk separately, to each of my two journalist panelists. Let's start with Lauren Gardner, and she's the editor at POLITICO [Pro] Canada. So, she's working for--I don't know whether she's Canadian, I don't know--but she's working for an American publication, and serving the needs of an American audience. So, we're going to get her perspective first.

And she'll be followed by Alex Panetta, and Alex is the Washington correspondent for the CBC, the Canada Broadcasting Corporation. So, he has a very different audience.

And so, through their filters, I think we're going to get some interesting insights as to what the Americans are interested [in] in terms of the bilateral relationship going forward, and what Canadians are most interested in. So, Lauren, I'm going to turn it over to you, so for a few minutes, if you can give me sort of an overview.

MS. LAUREN GARDNER: Sure. And to answer your question, I'm American. But maybe some people would consider me an honorary Canadian, I don't know. You'd have to ask.

MS. FRANCIS: Actually, I'm both citizenships, so there you go. I straddle.

(Laughter.)

MS. GARDNER: So, with the election of Joe Biden to be the next president, I definitely believe that just the general attitude by the U.S. towards multilateral institutions, our allies, the world writ large, it's going to get a lot more attention. There's going to be a lot of work done to, in some cases, repair relationships, in others, just, you know, pivot to a different type of focus. And Canada will certainly be a part of that. As Jane mentioned, you know, Prime Minister Trudeau was the first foreign leader to talk to the president-elect. I think that sent a signal of the importance of the relationship.

That being said, as the Ambassador noted, there are lots of different issues that the president-elect's administration is going to have to deal with right off the bat--COVID recovery, the public health recovery and the economic recovery, climate change, immigration, racial equity. And it's going to be incumbent upon the Canadian government to assert itself, I think, in terms of trying to get the Biden administration's attention on its priorities.

So, there are definitely opportunities for both countries to work together. On the public health front, absolutely, in terms of trying to collaborate to get CO VID cases down on both sides of the border--since now it's not just the U.S. anymore, everyone's seeing this huge spike.

The economic recovery--how do the countries utilize USMCA to figure out some of those issues the Ambassador mentioned, like supply chains? Is there going to be more of a reshoring of certain industries? And if that is to happen, is that more continental as opposed to siloed in separate countries?

The border, in and of itself--that's been a huge issue in the last nine, ten months, and that's going to continue to be a huge issue. There are a lot of folks agitating for a more transparent system of figuring out who is essential and who is not, and perhaps allowing more travel, more types of "essential travel." So, that is going to continue to be an issue, especially as cases start to tick downward.

And then there are just the perennial bugaboos, like "Buy American" provisions, Keystone XL. Those will be two big issues that, you know, the president-elect has made clear in his platform, and during his campaign, that he's interested in instituting more "Buy American" policies--always something the Canadian government is keeping an eye on. And he's been very vocal in his opposition to the Keystone pipeline. So, those will be two big potential sticking points for both countries to work through.

But there are other areas for cooperation as well, besides pandemic-related work. And one of those big ones will definitely be climate change. As President-elect Biden looks to get the U.S. back into the Paris Agreement, perhaps there's an opening there for the U.S. to work with a country like Canada to figure out, "Okay, how do we, as more of a continental unit, bring down, reduce our carbon footprint?"

So, those are some of the big issues that I think will be top of mind for folks working on the bilateral relationship right now. It'll just be a question of, you know, once you get through the public health and economic crises right now, how do you get attention paid to some of those other issues.

MS. FRANCIS: Thanks, Lauren. That's very interesting. On the "Buy America" thing, I think that's the big touchstone for a lot of Canadians, where it's really not a federal system, either. The states can impose, and municipalities can sort of pick us off, and others, with the "Buy America" stuff. How do you think Biden is going to approach that, if there is some of these pockets of protectionism? Or, in fact, is he going to take the side of the unions, which he's very close to, and irrespective of whether it's Canada or not, support "Buy America" procurement policies?

MS. GARDNER: Well, I mean, I think he's stated that he's definitely supportive of "Buy American" policies. The question will be whether exemptions are carved out for Canada. There's certainly precedent for that, that's been done in the past. So, I don't think anything could necessarily be written off just yet, but that is going to be a big thing to watch as we get into the early months of his administration.

MS. FRANCIS: Do you see any possibility of ... [inaudible] the president-elect thus far, do you see any personality situations which may beget some problems with Canada, or a closer alliance? I mean, obviously the vice president-elect] is the first person to graduate from a Canadian high school to be in the White House, so we're kind of proud of that. That doesn't mean she's going to give away the store to us, but I just wondered if you see either pro or con in the personal lineup.

MS. GARDNER: I think it's going to be a marked difference in terms of how the two country's top leaders deal with each other on a personal level. As the Ambassador said, it's pretty evident that President-elect Biden and the Prime Minister have a warm relationship. I know a big deal has been made in Canada about Vice President-elect Kamala Harris's high school experience in Montreal. So, I think there are going to be maybe some more obvious instances where, you know, you'll see a personal rapport that maybe wasn't always seen during the Trump administration between those two leaders.

But that being said, like you said, I don't think that means, you know, that the U.S. will give Canada everything they want, and that there won't be disagreements along the way--there certainly will. But it seems that they're set up to have a good personal rapport.

MS. FRANCIS: Yeah. It's really not broken. It doesn't need fixing, thank goodness. Okay, that's great, thank you.

Alex--I'm going to turn to Alex, and he's with the CBC. And I just kind of want you to deal with the same sort of ... give me your answers from the Canadian audience point of view, "Buy America", procurement issues and other, you know, Keystone, and those sorts of things.

MR. ALEXANDER PANETTA: Sure, and we can start with the micro and ...

MS. FRANCIS: What's the ... sorry.

MR. PANETTA: Yeah. So, on "Buy American" I think we'll have a fairly decent idea, actually, which way "Buy American" is going relatively soon, I think. I think if the Trump administration withdraws from the WTO Agreement on [Government] Procurement over the next few weeks, or announces an intention to withdraw, that might box in a Biden administration relatively early on. Because then you'd have to, sort of, reapply, or cancel the cancellation. Because I think that's frankly one of the most important issues that has to be resolved. If a Biden administration, or President Biden, were to sign off on a "Buy American"...