Prediction of Youth and Adult Recidivism Among Spanish Juveniles Involved in Serious Offenses

• Published date: 01 April 2020
• Date: 01 April 2020
• Author: Keren Cuervo,Miguel Basto-Pereira,Lidón Villanueva
• DOI: 10.1177/0093854819897282
• Subject Matter: Articles

CRIMINAL JUSTICE AND BEHAVIOR, 2020, Vol. 47, No. 4, April 2020, 399 –418.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1177/0093854819897282

Article reuse guidelines: sagepub.com/journals-permissions

© 2020 International Association for Correctional and Forensic Psychology

399

PREDICTION OF YOUTH AND ADULT

RECIDIVISM AMONG SPANISH JUVENILES

INVOLVED IN SERIOUS OFFENSES

KEREN CUERVO

LIDÓN VILLANUEVA

Jaume I University

MIGUEL BASTO-PEREIRA

William James Center for Research, ISPA–Instituto Universitário

This study analyzes the predictive validity of the Youth Level of Service/Case Management Inventory (YLS/CMI) for youth

and adult recidivism in a Spanish juvenile sample. Participants’ age ranged between 14 and 18.09 years old (N = 264) and

82% were boys and all had been sentenced to probation and custody centers. Data on juvenile and young adult recidivism

were collected for the sample with mean follow-up periods of 13.74 and 20.19 months, respectively. The area under the curve,

Kaplan–Meier and Cox regression survival analyses were each conducted to check for predictive validity. The findings dem-

onstrated that the YLS/CMI is able to predict recidivism in both the juvenile period and the emerging adult period in a dif-

ferent cultural context. Prior Offenses and Education/Employment emerged as significant predictors for youth and young

adult recidivism. The entire YLS/CMI is therefore an effective tool for risk classification in a different cultural sample.

Keywords: YLS/CMI; prediction; recidivism; juvenile; risk factor

INTRODUCTION

Risk assessment has been defined as the evaluation of how the characteristics of both the

youth and the situation relate to a relevant outcome (Bonta & Andrews, 2017), in this case,

future youth reoffending. An accurate risk assessment in youth recidivism has become a

major priority in criminological research, and serves important functions, mainly the pro-

motion of public safety, assistance in sentencing decisions, recommendations for services,

and targets for treatment (Olver et al., 2009). Moreover, youth risk assessment is crucial, as

it is the baseline for analyzing the possible continuity between juvenile and adult crime

(Basto-Pereira et al., 2015; Vincent et al., 2019). The use of instruments with long-standing

AUTHORS’ NOTE: The authors thank the Juvenile Justice Court and the Juvenile Court’s Technical Team for their

support in this research. This study was funded by Generalitat Valenciana, Conselleria d’Innovació, Universitats, Ciència i

Societat Digital (reference number: GV/2019/089), and Jaume I University (reference number: UJI-A2019-09).

Correspondence concerning this article should be addressed to Keren Cuervo, Jaume I University, Av. de Vicent Sos

Baynat, s/n, 12071 Castellón de la Plana, Spain; e-mail: Cuervo@uji.es.

897282CJBXXX10.1177/0093854819897282Criminal Justice and BehaviorCuervo et al. / Prediction of Youth and Adult Recidivism

research-article2020

400 CRIMINAL JUSTICE AND BEHAVIOR

empirical support and proven predictive value is therefore essential (Guy et al., 2012;

Henggeler, 2004; Taxman, 2018).

The Youth Level of Service/Case Management Inventory (YLS/CMI) is one of the most

widely used risk assessment instruments for predicting recidivism for youth. It is a Fourth-

Generation risk assessment that emphasizes the link between assessment and case manage-

ment. There have been many field studies concerning the reliability and predictive validity of

the YLS/CMI (e.g., Olver et al., 2009; Schmidt et al., 2005). In this context, predictive validity

can be considered the ability of risk assessment tool score to correctly assess the likelihood of

reoffending (Singh, 2013). Various studies have effectively demonstrated that this instrument

accurately evaluates the likelihood of reoffending and is one of the best options for assessing

the risk of recidivism among minors (Gendreau et al., 1996; Olver et al., 2014). Moreover, the

results of different studies have shown that the YLS/CMI works equally well for different

subgroups, including the type of recidivism (e.g., violent/nonviolent), recidivism outcome

(e.g., how the variable was measured; number of new files; presence/absence of recidivism),

country, and sample characteristics (e.g., high-risk minors; Onifade et al., 2008; Pusch &

Holtfreter, 2017; Thompson & McGrath, 2012). In summary, this Inventory was selected

among other predictive instruments mainly due to its cutoff scores which allow to classify the

minor in a range of risk recidivism levels, the importance given to dynamic risk factors in the

assessment and its good reliability and predictive validity values.

In addition, the YLS/CMI measures the eight dimensions of risk factors, which remain

useful to understand, predict, and prevent recidivism (Bonta & Andrews, 2017; Campbell

et al., 2019; Flores et al., 2004; Rennie & Dolan, 2010). These eight dimensions are as fol-

lows: Antisocial Attitudes, Antisocial Friendships, an Antisocial Personality Pattern, a

History of Previous Offenses, Deficient Family Circumstances, Education and Employment,

Substance Abuse, and free time for Leisure and Recreation. The first four dimensions are

called “the Big Four,” given their stronger predictive power in relation to recidivism in

comparison to the rest of factors. Nonetheless, not all the dimensions are equally predictive

in all type of populations (Bonta & Andrews, 2017). In this regard, researchers must take

into account the social context and culture when analyzing predicting factors of recidivism.

The purpose of this study is to examine the predictive validity of the YLS/CMI Inventory in

Spain.

THE PREDICTIVE VALIDITY OF THE YLS/CMI IN SPANISH POPULATIONS

Few studies have analyzed the validity of the YLS/CMI in populations outside the Anglo-

Saxon countries. Nonetheless, these few studies showed strong predictive validity for the

YLS/CMI according to Rice and Harris’s (2005) classification in Asian (Benuto et al., 2014;

Chu et al., 2015; Mori et al., 2017), Spanish (Cuervo & Villanueva, 2015, 2018), Portuguese

(Pimentel et al., 2015), or Dutch populations (De Ruiter & Hildebrand, 2009). Nevertheless,

some specific dimensions, such as Prior Criminal History and Substance Abuse, lacked

content representativeness and predictive validity and the risk score means were lower than

those on Anglo-Saxon countries (Takahashi et al., 2013). Cultural and legal differences may

account for the low content representativeness and predictive validity.

There are relevant legal and cultural differences between the Spanish and Anglo-Saxon

cultures that may affect the validity of the YLS/CMI, such as the different legal systems and

the collectivism versus individualism cultural differences. For instance, according to the